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Comments: 396 +-   Crunching the Numbers on a Hydrogen Economy on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:20AM

Posted by CowboyNeal on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:20AM
power
science
mattnyc99 writes "In its new cover story, 'The Truth About Hydrogen,' Popular Mechanics magazine takes a close look at how close the United States is to powering its homes, cars and economy with hydrogen — including a calculation of where all the hydrogen would come from to meet President Bush's demands. Interesting that they break down the future of hydropower not by its advantages but by its challenges: production, storage, distribution and use."
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  • Electricity + Water (Score:5, Interesting)

    by dsginter (104154) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:26AM (#16465995)
    With all the problems that hydrogen has, a good stop gap would come with the advent of an affordable fuel cell. With a fuel cell in each house, you could essentially generate hydrogen from water and electricity at night when the power plants are idling in inefficient speeds. During the day, you could do the opposite and generate electricity from the hydrogen generated the previous night. This would work well for shaving energy consumption during peak levels. With discounts for off-peak electricity, this sort of system could pay for itself while providing backup generator services as a side effect.

    Then again, so would a huge flywheel or a bunch of batteries.
    • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:33AM (#16466049)
      With a fuel cell in each house, you could essentially generate hydrogen from water and electricity at night when the power plants are idling in inefficient speeds. During the day, you could do the opposite and generate electricity from the hydrogen generated the previous night.

      Or you could do what most people do when they want hydrogen, heat a hydrocarbon with steam [wikipedia.org]. It is a hell of a lot cheaper than electrolysis! In fact, most fuel cells use some sort of hydrocarbon reforming to get their hydrogen. Unless you store hydrogen as a liquid, its energy density is just too low for any reasonable fuel tank.
        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          Yeah, but with fossil fuels you're releasing NEW CO2 on the atmosphere... For fuel cells you're using Methanol, that can be obtained from sugar-cane. So any CO2 released was once at the atmosphere anyway.

          The real problem here is the space required by sugar-cane plantations. To be able to supply enougth methanol the plantations would have to grow over lands ocuppied today by other cultures (we still need food!), or the few preserved wild forrests that we have. Yes, I know we can harvest methanol from beats a
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            If you used BioDiesel as a fuel you wouldn't have to rely on the technology curve.

            It's over 100 years old, proven, affordable, reliable, and can be ported from homes to cars with a MUCH higher factor of safety than hydrogen gas.

            It's already has a distribution system infrastructure.

            You can create BioDiesel from a wide range of plants that grow in all but one or two agricultural zones.

          • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

            (And if you ask me, nuclear is not the holy grail, unless they get fusion going).

            The main problem with Nuclear today is the absence of recycling the material after it has been in the reacotr. Once we get breeder reactors and a recycling program going, nuclear gets a lot cleaner.
    • At night, the actual load is much less than the peak capacity. Fine. Why make hydrogen at home? Make it at the powerplant to save the 15% line loss and make 15% more H2.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        Why make hydrogen at home?

        There aer many strategies - I guess that I just picked one that doesn't put a bunch of hydrogen in one spot. I was located in an area affected by the blackout of 2003 so putting all of the eggs in one basket just never seems like a good idea to me anymore.

        I suppose it would be a good idea to build a power plant on an empty natural gas formation and store all of the generated hydrogen in there. It would certainly help meet the needs during the day and do so with a smaller footprin
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      Maybe I'm taking you too literally here, but remember that no fuel cell system aimed at the mass market take pure hydrogen as an input, mainly because of it's inherent danger (think Hindenburg).
      Instead, they take some other compound, like ammonia or hydrides, from which they extract the hydrogen to power the fuel cell. The advantage is that at no point do you have a large enough quantity of hydrogen to cause an explosion.

      So my point is, generating the appropriate "fuel" for a fuel cell isn't as easy as elec
      • by orzetto (545509) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @08:01AM (#16466879)
        no fuel cell system aimed at the mass market take pure hydrogen as an input, mainly because of it's inherent danger (think Hindenburg).

        That's because there are no fuel cells aimed at the mass market yet, except alcohol testers, which are anyway not a power source. Hydrogen is not more dangerous than gasoline; it does not concentrate on the ground but escapes high to the sky. You can neither be soaked in hydrogen. It does however have a lower threshold for ignition, but putting things together it is not especially dangerous. Thinking Hindenburg, less than half of crew and passengers actually died [wikipedia.org]. Try find that number in any plane crash with an equivalent amount of flames.

        Instead, they take some other compound, like ammonia or hydrides, from which they extract the hydrogen to power the fuel cell. The advantage is that at no point do you have a large enough quantity of hydrogen to cause an explosion.

        Wish it were like that, but if they contain the energy, hydrides, ammonia or whatever else can also burn. The idea is mostly to increase volumetric energy density, as hydrogen is very light and going around with a 70-MPa cylinder is somewhat unpractical (though not impossible).

        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          According to the wikipedia article that you cite, the hydrogen used for buoyancy was not the main contributor to the flames, but rather a compound used to dope the fabric that formed the skin on the zeppelin.
          • by voidptr (609) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @09:36AM (#16468537) Homepage Journal
            You know what makes a good hydrogen carrier?

            Carbon. Link 8 carbons or so in a chain, and populate the remaining bonds with Hydrogen. It forms a stable, energy dense, easily transportable liquid. As an added bonus, you don't need to do any additional processing to use it in that state, just burn it in your existing internal combustion engine.
      • by wowbagger (69688) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @08:25AM (#16467245) Homepage Journal
        The Hindenburg fire was NOT caused by hydrogen, but rather by a new exterior covering that the Zeppelin company was trying out - a butyl rubber fabric coated with iron oxide and powered aluminum - in other words, a formulation very close to what the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters use for fuel.

        In addition, the skin panels were not electrically bonded to the superstructure of the ship and formed a series of capacitors which were highly charged - when the ship was grounded by the mooring lines, the panels discharged, some through the wet cords binding them to the ship, some by arcing (and thus setting themselves on fire).
        • Indeed, the Zeppelin company did a secret report on the Hindenberg tragedy and noted that the canvas covering was extremely flammable, to say the least. I believe on the Graf Zeppelin II (which did fly for a few years before World War II) they went to a less-flammable covering and also changed some of the canvas covering hooks to bronze, which did not transmit electrical discharges like steel ones do.
        • Rubbish (Score:4, Insightful)

          by fnj (64210) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @01:29PM (#16473617)
          The Hindenburg fire was NOT caused by hydrogen, but rather by a new exterior covering that the Zeppelin company was trying out - a butyl rubber fabric coated with iron oxide and powered aluminum - in other words, a formulation very close to what the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters use for fuel.

          There was no butyl rubber involved, but other than that, you have picked up on the revisionist Incendiary Paint Theory. It is voodoo science, nonsense on the face of it, and has been completely discredited through logic, investigation, and experiment; see Definitive rebuttal and many good links [colorado.edu]. The best minds in the field of airship history hashed this out in extreme detail, going over and over every angle. I know because I was involved in some of the debates.

          Incendiary Paint Theory proponents who completely reject evidence and experimental findings are never able to explain away the DOZENS of other hydrogen filled airships which were lost through catastrophic hydrogen fires. None of them were doped with the Magic Incendiary Potion.
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      Everybody building up his own little electricity depot can never be as efficient as a large-scale approach. An advantage of this scenario would however be that these depots would release heat both during charging and decharging. If you use them during the winter and heat up your house as a side effect, there might be a case. During the summer, forget it. Hydrogen is such a complex energy form it can only be profitable in places where you need to take your energy with you, e.g. your car.
      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        Everybody building up his own little electricity depot can never be as efficient as a large-scale approach.

        Ultimately, this depends on population density and the efficiency advantage of the large-scale approach.

        For any generation method limited by Carnot cycle efficiency, this is true. But fuel cells do not have this limit, and their efficiency does not increase very much with their size. Also, given that most homes already have some sort of chemical energy (natural gas or oil) delivered for heating, they

    • Copper is cheap to run to homes. Pipes that carry natural gas are so-so in costs. Pipes that carry H2 are EXPENSIVE and silly (a million/mile according to the article). Instead, use the piping to go to distributed storage stations. Locate a fill-up stations AND large fuel cell there (perhaps one per neighborhood or one square mile). The advantage of this, is that a site could store several days worth of H2 for doing generation. Even if the main grid is taken down, these might provide power for the local are
  • by tdemark (512406) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:27AM (#16466003) Homepage
    Interesting that they break down the future of hydropower not by its advantages

    I do not think it means [reference.com] what you think it means.

  • Hydro... power? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Aladrin (926209) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:28AM (#16466015)
    I thought we were talking about Hydrogen Power, not HydroPower. (water power) Or is this another Bushism?

    Nope, looks like the submitter just has no idea what it means. Only reference to that in the article is an link to another article that does indeed talk about water power.

    As far as 'where to get it'... I've always wondered where they thought they'd get unlimited amounts of any limited resource. We can't destroy the oceans for it, and we can't scoop it out of the sun. (At least, I think we can't.) The article talks about nuclear and fossil fuels... That's the problem we already have... How is this a solution?

    We're going to have to sit down and decide to be responsible about the environment some day. We can't keep putting it off forever.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      We're going to have to sit down and decide to be responsible about the environment some day. We can't keep putting it off forever.
      I wish that were true. I see us as more like the alocoholic who drinks himself to death. He knows he's being destructive but he won't change.
    • You are right. Hydrogen production takes energy to "make" and releases less energy when "consumed". You need another source of energy to supply the energy needed to Hydrogen will store. That brings us back to Fossil, Nuclear, Solor, Geothermial.

      The only advanage that Hydrogen really supplies in my mind, is that "making" will be ran 7x24 at near continous optimised loads, where the power that is being consumed is at or near maximum efficiency. Like Diesel-electric locomotives, that run the main 2-cycle e
  • What about Iceland? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by dcw (87098) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:34AM (#16466057)
    Not a single mention of Iceland in the article, I guess it is only an option if it is a 'Made In The USA' thing.
  • Coal to oil (Score:2, Interesting)

    Well at least they are looking at it..... right?

    With oil running out in +/- 43 years we are already started very late to start working on good solutions. I think that we, in the end will be working with the coal liquefaction solutions. Creating oil from coal is already done on large scale in South Africa.

    We will not be able to change all current diesel driven machines to a other power source so I think this will become to gap closer until we find a better solution. I really wonder what the governments aroun
    • by rkcallaghan (858110) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:54AM (#16466209)
      suntac wrote:
      With oil running out in +/- 43 years ...
      For us unenlightened folks, could you explain the "-43 years" part of that estimate?

      ~Rebecca
      • by nelsonal (549144) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @07:06AM (#16466307) Journal
        Didn't you get the memo? The oil ran out in 1963, the fuel you put in your car and petrol you think is coming from the ground is all the product of a conspiracy that ExxonMobil cooked up with the Rand Corporation and Carslyle Group (under the auspices of the Trilateral Commission and Council on Foreign Relations).
    • "With oil running out in +/- 43 years we are already started very late to start working on good solutions"

      I've seen this prediction-of-doom vary from 10 years to 50 years.... projected at various points over the last 30 years. Chances are, you'll be able to see some headline in 2070: "Oil Running Out in 20 Years!!!"
      • I've seen this prediction-of-doom vary from 10 years to 50 years.... projected at various points over the last 30 years. Chances are, you'll be able to see some headline in 2070: "Oil Running Out in 20 Years!!!"

        Amazing how you don't graps what "Peak Oil" really is.

        At a certain point, production stops increasing, and in fact starts to decline, because not enough new fields can be found to replace the spent ones. (When's the last time you saw a field of Oil pumps in PA?) The price of oil goes up, as the supply goes down -- making currently non-profitable oil reserves and energy sources, theoretically, more profitable.

        We will likely never run out of oil, although it will eventually (50 years? 500?) reach the point where it's simply too expensive to get the stuff out of the ground, and we only use biomass-made oil or some other alternative fuel source.
        • We will likely never run out of oil, although it will eventually (50 years? 500?) reach the point where it's simply too expensive to get the stuff out of the ground, and we only use biomass-made oil or some other alternative fuel source.

          This is a true statement. However, what you're not really discussing -- and what really lies behind the worries of people discussing Peak Oil -- is what the social consequences of that increase in cost will be.

          As energy becomes more expensive, the lifestyles that we currentl
  • by mrdrivel (742076) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:48AM (#16466157)
    From the article:
    But unlike oil and gas, hydrogen is not a fuel. It is a way of storing or transporting energy. You have to make it before you can use it -- generally by extracting hydrogen from fossil fuels, or by using electricity to split it from water.
    How is hydrogen not a fuel? I always thought fuel was a substance that when it goes through a chemical reaction releases energy. While many fuels are burned, the process of generating energy in a fuel cell is still a chemical reaction.

    Secondly, aren't there other fuels that have to be made before we can use them? Gasoline and diesel have to be refined -- it's not like we find them naturally in the ground.

    So hydrogen is just a way of "storing and transporting energy". I thought the use of fuels was a way to "store and transport energy".

    • by kfg (145172) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @07:17AM (#16466409)
      Yes, hydrogen is a fuel, but it is not an energy source. It is a fuel you have to put the power into. The phrase "hydrogen economy" is an idiocy at best; a fraud at worst. The economy will be based on whatever source of energy is used to make the the hydrogen. Like, oooooooooooh, gas and coal.

      The more things change. . .

      Gasoline and diesel have to be refined -- it's not like we find them naturally in the ground.

      But the energy is already in the crude (stored solar) and it can be used to power its own refinement. There is a loss of available energy in the process, but a net gain nonetheless.

      There is nothing but net loss in hydrogen since any energy that can be extracted from it must be put in it the first place - and the Second Law wins. The current cheapest and quickest way to put energy into hydrogen is to . . .burn oil and coal. Using hydrogen as a fuel increases coal and oil use until the price of them rises above the cost of energizing hydrogen by other means.

      In other words, when hydrogen becomes really, really expensive itself.

      KFG
    • by 140Mandak262Jamuna (970587) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @08:00AM (#16466867) Journal
      OK, if you want to nitpick, H2 is not a primary fuel. You need some other energy source to create it. So it is more like electricity than crude oil. Of course, H2 will become a primary fuel the day we start mining Jupiter and Saturn for H2.
  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna (970587) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @06:54AM (#16466207) Journal
    We should recognize that there are two distinct energy sectors, and one is in crisis and the other one has some breathing space for a smooth landing.

    The fixed or stationary energy use, at homes, offices, and factories is not in as much of a crisis as the transportation sector. For electricity generation, there are alternatives like coal (yeah, it is dirty), or nuclear (yeah, most people fear it) or tar sands (yeah, it is expensive to recover) or wind (yeah, it has some problems), solar (yes, it needs high investment). There are problems, but USA is self suffiicient in them, and we wont be held hostage by foreign powers. There is breathing space to develop really good alternatives.

    On the other hand, in the transportation sector is in crisis already. So much of personal transportation depends on gasoline and freight depends on diesel and air transportation depends on kerosene. No serious alternatives are emerging and the time is running out on those sectors. Most predictions of peak oil is around now or 2010. Even the most optimistic estimates about the Hydrogen powered cars or biodiesel driven trucks talk about widespread adaptation around 2020.

    America is particularly vulnerable to this energy crisis. It is not as densely populated like Europe or Urban India and China. It is not easy to switch USA to use electricity driven public transportation. So much of the economy depends on the high home values of the sprawled cities and the humongous fleets of trucks delivering goods. So much of the infrastructure is built around the idea it is very cheap to transport goods over 100s of miles. And America is not self sufficient in this energy sector. This is a grave crisis.

      • by nelsonal (549144) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @07:19AM (#16466425) Journal
        From my understanding throughout the 20th century we've always had about 40 years of production in known reserves. The only valid arguement for peak oil is that the Saudis have been lying through their teeth about their reserves (the Matt Simmons arguement). He makes a good case, and certainly knows more about oil extraction than most of us.
  • A better approach (Score:3, Interesting)

    by hey! (33014) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @07:46AM (#16466657) Homepage Journal
    Leaving aside the various technical problems with the "hydrogen economy", the biggest hurdle I see is that there may be no incremental way to make it work. You need the distribution system to exist to make developing the technologies for generating and using it practically and vice versa. To transition to a hydrogen economy would take the kind of concerted national effort we haven't seen here in the US in sixty years.

    Hydrogen is not an energy source, it is transmission medium. We already have a highly effective transmission medium: electricity. Improvements in our electricity generation and distribution systems would be a simple, incremental means towards a more diverse energy generation portfolio.

    The main problems are battery technology for mobile applications, and long distance transmission. The inability to ship electricity across the continent divides our nation into geographic markets; it is not possible to harvest wind energy in North Dakota and sell it in California. In my state of Massachusetts there is a huge brouhaha over a massive ocean based wind farm right off the coast of our prime tourist area. This farm would be unnecessary if we could buy wind power from distant land based wind farms.

    The answer would be a national superconducting electricity grid.

    One advantage of a national super grid would be that it would create a superior storage medium for renewable but variable sources, such as solar voltaic, wind and tidal power, by converting them to natural gas and diesel fuel reserves with near perfect effiency.

    Huh?

    It's simple: we have already natural gas and diesel plants that burn fossil fuels and supply a major fraction of our electricity. If they don't burn as much fuel because a distant, renewable source is providing power to the local grid, the difference in fuel is saved. From a national viewpoint, if that renewable energy had been magically converted into diesel oil, tbe practical result wouldn't be any different, on the "penny saved is a penny earned" theory.

    A superconducting grid may also be the missing incremental step towards increased hydrogen use. The superconducting transmission lines would have to be cooled. If liquid hydrogen were used as a coolant, then it would provide an alternative (but less efficient) form of energy storage to saved fossil fuels. The producers would provide a mix of hydrogen and electricity and inject them into the transimission line. On the receiving end, the hydrogen would be gasified and converted into electricity at a rate sufficient to maintain cooling in the transmission line.

    This would provide a local source of liquid or gasified hydrogen that could be piped or tankered to power hydrogen fleet vehicles at the outset. An example might be post office delivery vehicles, for whom a daily range of a couple of hundred miles is acceptable; or possibly some mass transit buses that take many short distance trips and could be refuled during the day. If there were other local uses for the hydrogen, then the local terminal would request more and the producers would alter their electricty/hydrogen mix. However if hydrogen is outstripped by battery technology, then the basic infrastructure is still useful.

    The best part of this is that it could be done much faster than a fossil fuel to hydrogen transition.
  • by guidryp (702488) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @07:54AM (#16466799)
    Hydrogen is nothing but an energy storage medium. There will be an energy loss converting to hydrogen, an energy loss converting from hydrogen. A whole infrastructure to build for conversion/delivery. Storage issues in cars....

    Wouldn't a better battery be a much better solution. We already have the distribution network(electric grid). EEStor ultra capacitors seem to be that better battery if they deliver on promises, but there are also advanced flywheels (composite wheels in a vacuum, superconducting magnetic bearings, turning neark 100k rpm). These can be charged or discharge quickly and should last the life of the vehicle.

    http://tyler.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2006/1/19 /1715549.html [blogware.com] (ultracaps)
    http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.05/flywheel.h tml [wired.com] (advanced flywheels)

    Fuel cells don't solve any energy creation issues and as a deliver mechanism, it doesn't seem so hot, I would much prefer to stick with mechanisms we aleady have like the electric grid.
  • by yancey (136972) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @10:50AM (#16470233)
    In my opinion, hydrogen is a distraction by the petroleum industry, which would be the primary source and that is why G.W. supports it. The problems with hydrogen are stated as "production, storage, distribution and use". It seems to me this is true of any energy source. However, I believe that we have solved all but the storage issue for electricity. We know how to produce electricity in great quantities and new means of production are coming on-line every day (solar, hydro, wind, etc.) and these techniques are ever improving. We have a distribution system in place for electric, which just needs to be expanded. Use is also covered as electric motors are far more efficient than fuel engines. That only leaves storage. Research monies should be spent on engineering storage solutions for electricity instead of solving all of the above stated problems for hydrogen.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      replace element with compound and you have the same arguement for Petrol and Diesel.

      easier to make a bomb with Diesel then hydrogen
      • by krell (896769) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @07:24AM (#16466465) Journal
        "easier to make a bomb with Diesel"

        After XXX [imdb.com], Riddick [imdb.com] and A Man Apart [imdb.com], Hollywood knows how easy it is.
              • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

                A hydrogen economy won't work, hydrogen is only good for storage. Give up, people.

                That's quite a strawman you're propping up there! Proponents of a hydrogen economy propose using hydrogen as a means of storing energy produced in a variety of manners, including wind, solar, geothermal, hydrodynamic, etc. Did you even read the article?

                The posting that you are responding to claims that we shouldn't generate the hyrdrogen at the source of the energy production, but rather convert it to electricity and then us

            • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

              Ahh... You get my point. A little anecdote.

              Jamaica produces Sugar from cane and sells it at a loss (weird Jamaican politics that I won't get into). However Appleton estate is profitable, unlike the rest. Why? they grow sugarcane to make rum. That rum attracts premium prices.

              Rum is technically byproduct of the waste from sugar production. Just like Molasses and Bagas (wood substitute). Since these goys figured out how to cover the total cost off a single byproduct any money made from selling the other stuff
    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Know how dumb the average person is?
      dumb enough not to know the difference between the average and the median?
      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        As a statistician (out of practice) there are THREE common averages: The mean, the median, and the mode. In a normally distributed sample these values coincide.

        He's not wrong, merely imprecise. You might be considered either wrong, or ill informed. Your choice. I can't just pick overly critical, as that doesn't fit. (Well, it's true, but it's not the point I'm addressing.)

        It would have been more correct to point out that dumb means unable to speak rather than unintelligent. This is at least formally t
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          dictionary.com:
          median
          noun
          3. Arithmetic, Statistics. the middle number in a given sequence of numbers, taken as the average of the two middle numbers when the sequence has an even number of numbers: 4 is the median of 1, 3, 4, 8, 9.

          average:
          3. Statistics. see arithmetic mean.

          arithmetic mean
          Statistics. the mean obtained by adding several quantities together and dividing the sum by the number of quantities: the arithmetic mean of 1, 5, 2, and 8 is 4.
          (Also called average)

          Since the OP is attemp

    • Stupidity IS more abundant than hydrogen after all...
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      They have energy independance because they found a bunch of oil off their coast. The E85 helped but contributes only a modest amount (just under 15% or so of oil use) to their overal fuel use. Also, corn is much less efficient at converting solar energy to ethanol, so the US would be relying on imported sugar or ethanol anyway. Brazil is only declaring energy independance because they also have a plentiful cheap resource today, namely petroleum.
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      Way to take a quote out of context!

      Immediately before that quote: Skeptics say that hydrogen promises to be a needlessly expensive solution for applications for which simpler, cheaper and cleaner alternatives already exist. (Emphasis mine)

      In other words, for many applications Hydrogen is the Rube Goldberg machine of energy management.
      =Smidge=
    • by hcdejong (561314) <acme&xmsnet,nl> on Tuesday October 17 2006, @07:30AM (#16466521)
      This is mentioned in TFA (second page, heading "SOLID-STATE"). IIRC there are more materials that can do this, collectively they're called metal hydrides. Metal hydride tanks are heavy and expensive: Mercedes built a car with a metal hydride fuel tank about 10 years ago, the tank alone cost $100k.
      The temperature needed to release the hydrogen is about 300 deg C.
    • by Morgaine (4316) on Tuesday October 17 2006, @08:22AM (#16467205)
      It's not as clearcut as you make out. Try reading some actual scientific papers on the topic, instead of just listening to the media and politicians with an agenda. Scientists make a distinction between their actual scientific correlations and their preferred personal interpretation --- the latter is not Science.

      Climatology is full of uncertainties, and the general agreement among scientists goes only so far. The most important area of agreement is that CO2 operates as a greenhouse gas, but the extent of its contribution within the overall system is commonly misrepresented.

      CO2 is not the most important greenhouse gas, by a long chalk. Water vapour is the primary greenhouse gas on Earth, directly responsible for 95% of the global warming that keeps the planet from freezing solid to a dreadful -19 C or so. Global warming is essential.

      Climate modellers who want to highlight CO2 choose not to make that known to the man in the street, and the way they treat water vapour as a "feedback" in the GCM models instead of as a key mechanism of "forcing" tends to brush the importance of water vapour under the carpet. It's a somewhat questionable scientific approach because pure feedbacks should really be invariant linear amplifiers and not highly variant in their own right (as is water vapour), but what's worse is that this creates a hugely inaccurate public perception.

      The simple fact is that we live on an ice, water, and water-vapour covered globe moving in a somewhat complex way around a somewhat variant Sun, and that is the PRIMARY driver of climate, with water as its main agent of heat distribution and with just enough natural global warming to make it liveable, in between ice ages. CO2? Yes, it's relevant and it does have an effect, but it's not even close to being a primary player, and reducing our CO2 emissions will not have a significant effect in anybody's realistic scenario.

      And that's not under dispute by any scientist --- they know the maximum extent of possible direct warming per ppm of CO2, and they also know the maximim warming amplified through water vapour feedback in a cloudless atmosphere. But they're not even close to understanding well the magnitude of interactions in the upper atmosphere nor being able to model cloud formation well enough to determine what the real effect of 2X or 3X CO2 would be. To claim that anything in that area of climate forecasting is "established without doubt" is a total distortion of the truth.

      What's more, the natural variation in temperature across glaciation cycles totally swamps the changes calculated by any existing climate model, which just shows how we know very little in the larger context. We're right at the "natural" end of the current 18,000-year inter-glacial period, so expect a massive drop in temperature any century now. Can the GCMs predict that? Of course not.

      The uncertainties in this area are LARGE. They will be worked out. In the meantime, only non-scientists claim clearcut knowledge.
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