Cheap Solid State Computers Could Kill Microsoft 427
Eh-Wire writes "This is an interesting point made by a Clayton Hallmark on IndyMedia out of Argentina. He predicts that cheap Asian computing appliances with an Open Source Operating System on a chip will be the ultimate MS killer. References to the US$220 Mobilis out of India suggest the begining of newer, more powerful, and cheaper things to come. Mr. Hallmark also points to the success of the Wal-Mart cheap PC as proof the end is near for proprietory software. Overall an in interesting and thought provoking read."
Not that likely... (Score:5, Insightful)
The likes of Atari ST / Amiga /
M$ is not going to be "killed" any time soon - the most realistic chance there is, is that they will eventually be (financially) ground down far enough for them to no longer be able to react quickly enough to save their own hide. But that is most likely still quite a few years away - and it depends on there being enough serious outside threats.
Also, it would be more important to engage them on more fronts - if they are only in a skirmish with google over the search engine, their income will more than pay for that. If there were more (and different) fresh new competitors to emerge in different markets where M$ is a player (or sees that the market is too important for them to neglect), that could hurt them - but a single issue (the early browser wars; search engines now; cheaper computing platforms in the future) most likely won't be enough.
(And - no - the "new browser wars" I won't even count as a secondary issue - M$ already has the expertise to deal with that - it will cost them money, but it isn't something new they have to worry about - they need to be challenged on new frontiers - just look how long it took for them to catch up with netscape in the first place; and I would be prepared to bet that google is going to last for a few years yet, before M$ can kill them off - it will still be a while since M$ still need to build up a good deal more expertise in this market.
Yeah, right! (Score:3, Insightful)
No?
Next story,then.
Hmmm. kill microsoft? or help them? (Score:2, Insightful)
If that becomes common practice then it can turn around and bite us
What if microsoft do the same. Windows in ROM with some patches coming through software. It would force your machine to always only ever use windows.
Once it's legislated that you can't mess with your hardware, it means you then have to use windows.
I think Microsoft's xbox DRM to make sure no other operating system runs easily on the hardware is an entryway into this system.
And I don't like the sound of it
Re:Not that likely... (Score:5, Insightful)
Yeah, MS is immortal. Like the British Empire, when you're that rich and powerful nothing can change it.
Re:Not that likely... (Score:1, Insightful)
Death of a giant? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Not that likely... (Score:4, Insightful)
But back in reality, their shareholders wouldn't let them run a month without making a single dime without a clear explanation of how they're going to change that RIGHT NOW.
No actually (Score:3, Insightful)
oh, please (Score:2, Insightful)
Every few months there is someone predicting the demise of Microsoft. What do all these people have in common? They've all been 100% wrong, 100% of the time. I mean, we're talking about a company that could run at a loss for years and not bat an eye.
Mobiles, Mobiles! (Score:5, Insightful)
If we analyze the submission, the main reasons why people would switch to solid state devices would be
1. Price
2. You don't need a PC to send mails and make documents
3. Compactness and looks better
4. Easier to use
But if these are the factors, wouldn't mobile devices be way way easier than these computing appliances? And guess what, MS has an even better chance at capturing the market than anything else with XBox 360, which is now a multimedia + entertainment + communication
The reasons why people would use PCs would be
1. Powerful machine (For games, multimedia, programming etc etc)
2. Developers, Power users
3. Upgradeability
4. and most importantly, they prefer a PC for some reason.
By the way, about the $220 Mobilis, I don't see it as any different from the Simputer (which was yet another Slashdot favorite, and also from India) but failed to make any waves. IAAI, and I have not seen a Simputer, except at a trade show.
Re:Not that likely... (Score:3, Insightful)
Their management, however, wouldn't last anywhere near as long.
For example, with that sort of money on hand, I recommend they buy Intel (or AMD) and Seagate, then almost give the CPUs/disks away - make the whole box a commodity.
And what sort of return on investment am I, the shareholder, going to make on this? You're going to make back as much on the software as you would have been making on the hardware and the software? Explain.
I don't care how much gain you made me in previous years if you're just pissing away my money right now.
Yipe! (Score:3, Insightful)
The Crimes:
A) ALL CAPS (almost) ALL THE TIME
B) Flameworthy headline reminiscent of a Babelfish treatment: (BIG NEWS ON USA MICROSOFT: Slavery to It Is Ending
C) No real news in what follows the "Big News" headline.
D) Anti-Microsoft tied to anti-Americanism without even a thin veil of sophistication:
Why not say: "BIG NEWS: THE WORLD WILL CHANGE FROM BASE. WE ARE NOTHING -- Let Us Be Everything?"
E) OS HISTORY -- GROWING LIKE TOPSY
F) Okay, now let me get this right: all US corporations, including Sun (praised and damned in the same rant) are evil, or can be evil, but Walmart is good?
G) Mentioning that Car Lots have a 108-day supply of SUVs. I don't even know where to begin with that.
I mean, I hate M$ as much as the next guy, but that is the nuttiest troll of an article I've seen in a while.
Re:oh, please (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:oh, please (Score:5, Insightful)
Just like the fall of the Roman Empire (or anything else in history), everyone who predicted it was wrong, until the time it happened.
Intel and microsoft (Score:2, Insightful)
This is a little like people who'll say China is catching up on America. They're correct, it sure is. In about 50 years they will have caught up.
If microsoft topples, it wont be because of free software - maybe aided but not because. Probably a company like Apple will take the lead over anyone else. They have a superior product, the benefits of open source, an appropriate business model.
I could go on but my dinner is ready... sorry!
Re:Not that likely... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Not that likely... (Score:1, Insightful)
Amiga and ST were on the market years before microsoft was seen as a mainstream operating system, in those days microsoft was a basic and DOS subcontractor for other computer companies such as Apple, IBM and so forth.
The main reason the home computer market colapsed and there hasn't been a home computer designed since is that Amiga and Atari is that they could not compete in price and keep up in development with PC clone makers. The PC market never since replaced the home computer market as it has always been designed for business use and since then always ben retro-fited for home use. That is the case with microsoft, a company that makes products solely for accountants and managers!
That is the sad truth, we do not have a home computer.
there is Apple, but they are a high end media and premium home computer not aimed at mass marked home use.
Re:Not that likely... (Score:4, Insightful)
Exactly no money in and the Microsoft share price value would plummet. All those nice shareholders would turn nasty and demand that Microsoft hand over that big 'ol pile of cash now! Unless the remaining members of the company with large shareholdings, such as Gates etc, keep shareprice up by buying back outstanding shares at inflated prices. Either way that nice big "war chest" will be nothing in no time.
MS angle not nearly as interesting as the onward (Score:2, Insightful)
Computer as appliance will eventually lead to, as it has with all appliances, a huge reduction in both specialized workers and people who become motivated to understand how a thing works.
How many people these days understand how NTSC color encoding works while retaining compatibility with black and white sets? I suspect there are fewer than three
How many know how to rebraid the end of aworn buggy whip?
When understanding is no longer necessary, people, for the most part and even if capable, don't bother. The result? Perhaps a slowdown in software innovation. Perhaps an increase in other pursuits where understanding is required to get anything interesting done.
b
Re:oh, please (Score:5, Insightful)
Article for the masses? (Score:2, Insightful)
The writer describes a home computer appliance that simply does what a home user might want, without the need for proprietry and non-free intellectual property, home use devices that work like washing machines and fridges. That would require a limitation to be set upon the features available to such a system -- which the system designers would balk at, using such flexible general-purpose hardware -- and the system cut down to that level.
However, the home appliance market has moved to a cyclical model where we replace anything that's slightly defective with the newest model. This applies to computer hardware too, with each family's notebook or desktop computer is usable by most people but also sufficiently gadget-like that people would rather have a newer/prettier model than maintain it properly.
I think it's been tried before: WebTV stuff; personal tablets; VHS-tape sized ultra-portables, with the problem that, in the majority of cases, the hardware wasn't ready. Now we have hardware approaching the complexity required, but I would question the need for such things. U.S. computer consumption works in one way, but the developing nations will work in a different way, because of differing economic considerations and pressures.
An ultra-reliable rock-solid device for schools in African states, China or India would find a market among the untapped beginners markets wherever it was sold if it met the needs of those people. I doubt that the OSS devlopment people will provide one unless someone launches a project to do so; Ubuntu may be a step in the right direction but its hardware requirements (including default use of Gnome 2.10) are perhaps too great for this device.
Re:Not that likely... (Score:4, Insightful)
They've already agreed to piss away $37 billion for exactly those reasons - the stockholders were getting scared.
Re:Yeah, OK. (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Not that likely... (Score:5, Insightful)
How do you "throw money" at a cheap computer that doesn't run Windows?
Make a cheap computer that DOES run Windows?
How? Go back to DOS?
Get serious. MS can't compete against "free". That's what Bill said when he took down Netscape and it's just as true for him as it was for Netscape.
Besides, nobody is saying MS is going to go down next year. It could be ten years before they're ground down enough to be in financial trouble.
But it will happen. Without a major turnaround in thinking in Redmond, it WILL happen - and a major turnaround in thinking is not possible as long as Gates is breathing and Ballmer is his lapdog.
Microsoft s going to kill Microsoft (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:History is against Microsoft this time (Score:5, Insightful)
??? Microsoft never produced a free OS, the IBM PC was not an open source hardware platform. The only area where open standards played a role was that the manufacturers of PC 'clones' refused to support the proprietary closed microchannel architecture and OS/2 that IBM was trying to introduce to monopolize the market.
Open standards are not open source.
Like most slashdot stories on this topic the article is not thought provoking in the slightest, it is simply a repetition of the same prejudices that have been repeated ad-nauseam without any thought at all.
Falling hardware prices have been an issue for years, Dell were selling a full spec PC with LCD monitor for $400 six months ago. Microsoft themselves sell their X-Box for around $200. It isn't very long since the cheapest usefull PC cost over $2000.
The masses go off and pay $50 for one computer game. There is no way that Tomb Raider or EverQuest have even one percent of the intellectual effort of Windows put into them. Open Source games are practically non existent, people are still working on a rip off of Civ 3.
Linux is nowhere near providing a mass market user experience and most people working on Linux have absolutely no interest in making it mass market. What some of them want to do is to make the mass market realise how superior the C shell is to a GUI interface but most of the serious developers understand that they are producing something for techies.
Re:Not that likely... (Score:1, Insightful)
Beware of the US spies at the USAID!!!! (Score:3, Insightful)
Microsoft is here to stay (Score:3, Insightful)
Microsoft made it's billions there already. It will enter your wallet from another direction soon enough, you can bet on it. With the type of cash they have, they can command R&D budgets that are the envy of nations. Discounting their capabilities is a serious strategic error.
You don't have to like them. In fact, they are most definitely capatilistic parasites. But they are rich and they are smart. You will probably buy more from them in your lifetime and you will probably, for a time, even like it.
That is the way of things. Get used to it.
Re:Microsoft is here to stay (Score:0, Insightful)
MS's R&D has yet to produce anything of value.
MS has been an utter failure in every market outside of their core monopoly products, with the xbox being the most egregious example.
MS execs are cashing out their stock as fast as they are allowed to.
They know the party is over and they cashing in before things start to collapse. The company's revenue growth is on a straight downward line. It is somewhere down around 8% as of the last quarter. If the trend continues they will pass into negative revenue growth in another couple of quarters.
Look out below when that happens. The MS execs know this is immanent, the former CFO flat out and stated the fact a few quarters ago, and they are trying to get out before it does happen.
MS has already hand to hand over 35+ billion in cash to its shareholders just to keep them from dumping the stock. And that was just for this year. The stock growth bubble is coming back to bite MS - the 10.5+ billion shares outstanding have watching their value decline for the past five years and they are not happy.
Drop the fucking attitude. It doesn't mix well with your ignorance.
Xbox (Score:2, Insightful)
http://www.charlesjo.com/newsletterissue?newslett
Re:Not that likely... (Score:3, Insightful)
On the other hand I don't believe MS is in any danger from this. If anything they will capitalize on the new development.
Re:Not that likely... (Score:2, Insightful)
~X~
People tend to forget it isn't about the OS... (Score:3, Insightful)
Microsoft does not dominate the OS market because the OS is more secure than Linux, faster than Linux, or *better* in any other way that Linux. Microsoft dominates because of Microsoft Office. Of course, their tendrils would never rest in just that one place, but that IS the core of the company.
Re:Microsoft s going to kill Microsoft (Score:2, Insightful)
I see no reason to upgrade in the remotely foreseaable future...
It's the end of life triger MS has on their products. Tick-tack tick-tack BOOM. They could have called Win2k -> WinNT 5.0, Win2003 -> WinNT 6.0 and so and then, who would have believed they "had" to upgrade? I mean in Linux terms these new "products" would be plain kernel and programs upgrade. MS excells in marketing and pricing. I bet MS people are already thinking how to call some future release of their WinNT distro. Besides Longhorn (if that ever comes) there will be a stripped down Windows for the man in the street.
Re:Yipe! (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't hate Microsoft. Why would I? It makes little sense to hate a company that makes a product that I prefer not to use. I see lots of new cars that I think are very ugly on the road every day but do I hate the people who make them? Do I go around wishing that some other car company will put them out of business, so that they never take another breath again? (and to hell with all the people they employ that make a decent living?)
Does anyone on the "I hate Microsoft" rant even do anything about it? I see a major lack of innovation. Gnome and KDE have clearly copied Windows in many areas, but somehow made it more difficult for the average user to use. The best alternative is OS X- who we should hate as well, right? Big company, proprietary ideas... pretty much all the components of pure evil, right?
I've never visited Apple's headquarters, but I doubt their engineers sit around day after day with their lips stuck out, complaining about how they hate Microsoft. I doubt the are dreaming all day long about the next thing that might come along to put Microsoft out of business, throw their asses out on the street- hoping maybe Firefox or Open Office or WalMart PC's will "take care of the job." Remember- these are the guys that put out quality, annual OS releases. If you believe that there can be something better- create it or find something else to use.
Re:Not that likely... (Score:4, Insightful)
Correction -- the end is near for *all* software (Score:5, Insightful)
OK, a bit of hyperbole here, but not by far. If you cherry-pick the killer apps, and market the devices properly, only geeks will care about the fact that the underlying machine is a general-purpose computer.
If these consumer devices have an office suite, web browser and media player, most users aren't going to stray from those applications. The afformentioned apps are all commoditized by OS/FS to some degree. Once they are fully commoditized, nobody will care about the operating system or the applications, as long as the *data* can be exchanged with all other systems.
This is neither bad nor good for OS/FS. It's bad for people who develop the software because it means their job is done and they need to find a new one. Only maintenance programmers will be needed, and fewer and fewer of them.
In the end, it will be like arguments over FM vs. AM and what kind of amplifier circuit your radio uses. All those questions are answered, and you don't see too many ads for "analog radio engineer" do you? In other words, all the battles over software that seem so important now will be nothing more than academic when theh software is fully commoditized. Whether or not its proprietary won't matter, because software will all be the same anyway.
Must be a parallel universe you live in (Score:5, Insightful)
Gary Kildall must be spinning in his grave right now. CP/M was a PROPRIETARY operating system by Digital Research. Maybe there is an open or public domain incarnation today, but it was very much proprietary when DR still extisted. The STANDARDS were open in that the BDOS calls were pubically available, and CP/M variants ran on multiple platforms (8080, 8085, Z80, 8086, 68000) and CP/M machines were usually open architecture S100 machines. You could definitely not obtain a copy of CP/M legally for free nor could you see the source code without a special agreement and extra cost.
The BIOS for the IBM PC was also open
ummm...no it wasn't. Even the BIOS calls weren't 100% fully published. Phoenix and Compaq developed a compatible BIOS against the wished of IBM (it was the one and only part of the original PC that wasn't an off-the-shelf component in a design a small group of hoppyists could easily replicate). The way it went was like this: a group of people disassembled the IBM bios and wrote a detailed specification of all the entry and exit points of all the calls and what effect they had on the system. Then a separate group of developers at different company (Phoenix) who had sworn a legal oath that they had never examined an IBM PC used that specification to create the first IBM compatible BIOS.
It wasn't really Microsoft or IBM that created the advantage of which you speak at all--they merely took good advantage of "open architecture" and the co-operative efforts of others. When it comes to the creation of the industry, others did all the work and IBM and MS used their marketing savvy to take maximum advantage and profit (the ones who did the work were not marketers obviously).
When IBM finally realised that a little firmware was not enough to keep a lock on the market it was too late--they no longer steered the direction of that market. The MCA bus was technically superior to EISA, but it was closed and incompatible and IBMs share of the market they created was less than 50% or at least fast heading that way.
Don't confuse open architecture hardware platforms with Free/open software--they both have an advantage in that information is more free to move about, however control oof the design and direction of the former is still firmly in the grip of a select few hardware vendors: Intel controls the bus and motherboard dimensions, Intel and AMD the CPU and chipset, ATI and NVidia video and so on.
Not quite... (was: Re:Not that likely...) (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Yipe! (Score:4, Insightful)
You might if 90% of the gas stations were designed not to work for your car, but only for these ugly ones.
Re:Correction -- the end is near for *all* softwar (Score:3, Insightful)
Your vision of the future makes no sense to me. People are constantly coming up with new uses for general purpose computers and these new uses are demonstrably popular with end-users. If you had "cherry picked" the apps in 1993, you would have missed the Internet. If you had done it in 1999, you would have missed Napster. If you did it in 2003, you would have missed iTunes. Today you might miss BitTorrent or Podcasting.
Maybe we will eventually reach a point where we can push the general purpose computing to a remote server but then you are talking about serious dependence on third parties and probably subscription fees (how else are you going to expect QOS). But "experts" have been predicting this "thin client" vision for years and I'm pretty skeptical.
Re:On the other hand... (Score:3, Insightful)
If you look at the history of statements of Ballmer, Gates you will realize that they never have thought MS is untouchable. They see it as a constant war.
This is how I've even seen Microsoft for the last 20 years and this is the first time I see someone else pointing it out. I never saw Microsoft (Gates, really) as a greedy corporation wanting to take over the world. I've always seen him as a pathological paranoid schizophrenic thinking the entire planet was after him. Every one of his move is a "reaction" rather than an action. A "defensive" reaction.
Granted, today there are a lot of people out to get him, but this was not the case not that long ago. Things have changed, the markets have changed quite radically but the mentality remains. For anyone who has spent any lenght of time at the Microsoft campus, this is obviously clear. Microsoft behavior is hard to grasp for those without much understanding of the market and technology (the bulk of people). Few people understand what happens to competition when you control the OS, the development tools and the applications market. The whole anti-trust brouhaha was a joke as it never touched these issues and latched itself to silly browser integration and media players, things that people got used to and did not understand the underlying problems. Oh well... we all know what that means.