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Microsoft Boasts 96% Netbook Penetration
Posted by
kdawson
on Mon Apr 06, 2009 08:20 PM
from the sure-you-did dept.
from the sure-you-did dept.
An anonymous reader writes "Citing figures from market research firm NPD, Microsoft says Windows' share of the US netbook market has ballooned from less than 10% in the first half of 2008 to 96% as of February. 'The growth of Windows on netbook PCs over the last year has been phenomenal,' wrote Brandon LeBlanc, Microsoft's in-house Windows blogger, in a post Friday. Information Week author Paul McDougall notes Microsoft's 8% decline in Windows sales is due to netbooks sporting Linux. How does Redmond make an 80% gain in netbook market share without the sales numbers reflecting that gain?"
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Submission: Microsoft Boasts 96% Netbook Penetration by Anonymous Coward
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Linux: Linux On Netbooks — a Complicated Story 833 comments
An anonymous reader writes "Keir Thomas has responded to the recent raft of news stories pointing out that Linux's share of the netbook market isn't as rosy as it used to be. Thomas thinks the problem boils down to a combination of unfamiliar software and unfamiliar hardware, which can 'push users over the edge.' This accounts for the allegedly high return rates of Linux netbooks. In contrast, although far from superior, Windows provides a more familiar environment, making the hardware issues (irritatingly small keyboard, screen etc.) seem less insurmountable; users are less likely to walk away. 'Once again Microsoft's monopoly means Windows is swallowing up another market.'"
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Steve Ballmer Says (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Steve Ballmer Says (Score:5, Interesting)
I'm pretty sure Ballmer would be able to put a chair 100% through a netbook.
At least, as long as he hasn't gotten himself winded by running around like a lunatic [youtube.com].
On the other hand....
How does Redmond make an 80% gain in netbook market share without the sales numbers reflecting that gain?
I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're using pirated Windows statistics to up their market share. So they haven't actually sold anything, but Windows is on the system, therefore it belongs to them.
Parent
Re:Steve Ballmer Says (Score:5, Funny)
Very easy with a tiny bit of perl (microsoft use perl, right?)
$spc="<a href=\"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechnology/technology/technologynews/5105!!!"
$spc=~s/[^0-9]//go;
print "Sales increase: $spc%\n:wq";
Puts netbook sales increase at 5101%, and as overall netbook sales have increased by 6375% (a well known figure), that places MS's new market share at 80%. QED.
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Re:Steve Ballmer Says (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:Steve Ballmer Says (Score:5, Funny)
I can't believe I missed a semicolon... I'll create a git tree for it, then if anyone wants to contribute...?
Parent
Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
For a short while people were willing to forgo Windows for the form factor and price of a netbook. Then Moore's law ticked over and Microsoft was able to enter that market - same price for the machine but with the specs that XP needs. Next iteration they'll be selling units with Vista on them. The only way to keep Microsoft out is to race to the bottom and there's no economic incentive for the hardware manufacturers to do that.
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
one word: ARM
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Funny)
Actually, it's an acronym. ;-)
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Funny)
I think his're point was actually a joke.
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
MS has an IA64 release of Windows and it probably costs them a fortune to maintain for little benefit other than to let Intel know they support them, even when they are epic failures. I wouldn't hold my breath for an Windows 7 ARM edition.
I guess regarding this farfetched 96% statistic... Look who it's coming from. Brought to you by the same market researchers who contended the 13-17 year old music listeners would accept ad-supported music. The 96% figure seems more likely to be a massive error in calculation than anything.
I've spoken with a few retailers about their Netbook selection and as far as I can tell, Linux dominates based on price. Sure, I don't have hard data to back it up but 96% seems off-the-map implausible.
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS137134+31-Mar-2009+BW20090331 [reuters.com]
Parent
Windows on ARM (Score:5, Interesting)
I don't think that MS came up with Windows for Itanium just to "let Intel know they support them." They did it because they thought Itanium would be the Next Big Thing. As did a lot of other software vendors — all the major Unixes had Itanium versions, though they were mostly cancelled once the schedule started slipping.
Of course, Itanium is now seen as a white elephant, and all the effort people put into developing for it was wasted. But that's hindsight.
Just because MS got burned with Itanium doesn't mean they'll automatically stay away from ARM. If they see the whole netbook market taking off and face real competition from ARM netbooks, they might just do it.
The big stumbling block might be simple technology. ARM is, by design, a very simple, unsophisticated chip. I have to wonder if it can keep up with all the overhead of running Windows.
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Informative)
And where were the retailers you talked to?
There are no longer any Linux netbooks for sale at physical retail stores where I live (USA). No, it's not that they're out of stock frequently (as some Windows models are); they are no longer kept in stock.
Target is the only retailer that even lists Linux models on their website; they used to sell the 7" Eee PC in stores. Now they sell Windows models in-store & advertise them, as do all the other retail stores that sell computers.
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Funny)
You live in the whole USA?!
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
"There are no longer any Linux netbooks for sale at physical retail stores where I live (USA). No, it's not that they're out of stock frequently (as some Windows models are); they are no longer kept in stock.
Target is the only retailer that even lists Linux models on their website; they used to sell the 7" Eee PC in stores. Now they sell Windows models in-store & advertise them, as do all the other retail stores that sell computers."
The conspiracy theory loving part of me wonders if that was actually sales driven, or driven on the golf course. :-\
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Re: epic failures (Score:5, Funny)
No, we'll always have PA-RISC.
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Re: epic failures (Score:5, Insightful)
That made me sad. Alphas were good chips.
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Funny)
Is there any other way to call it? 'Race to the bottom' sounds so crass. Perhaps 'delivering better customer value by focusing on essential factors while reducing extraneous costs?' I raced to the bottom once and I found really weird stuff there...
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
The only way to keep bloated software out is to race to the bottom, the only way to keep Microsoft out is to provide an alternative that surpasses it in desirability.
If we all used $100 machines, that were 500mhz, and 10GB's of HD space etc, Microsoft will just create trimmed down versions to run on it, thus not getting rid of Microsoft.
But if you have something that personal and corporate users prefer over Microsoft's products, then it doesn't matter how low or highly spec'd the machine is, they'll want that software.
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
> The only way to keep Microsoft out is to race to the bottom and there's no economic
> incentive for the hardware manufacturers to do that.
There is no incentive for the CURRENT manufacturers to do that. But if you aren't in the laptop/pc business right now there is good reasons to see an opportunity to have the first $150 laptop and sell the ever luvin crap out of them as Xmas impulse items through retail outlets that won't care about cannibalizing their laptop sales because they don''t currently sell computers at all.
By your logic we would have never seen the $24.99 DVD player because "Who wants to race to the bottom." No, Sony or Phillips didn't do it but no name Chinese outfits did it and make a profit at it. The computer is poised to make that last transition to disposable consumer electronics.
They won't be trying to kill Microsoft, it will just be that they can't give em enough royalties to matter when selling on consumer electronics margins. So even if Microsoft made em a deal, once the marketplace finishes the move to consumer electronics Microsoft is going to be a shadow of it's former self. And Apple is just as boned.
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Interesting)
As Torvald's once said I have not set out to destroy MSFT it is a completely unintentional side effect.
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Interesting)
And Apple is just as boned.
Three things come to mind:
1. Apple has always focused on the higher-end market. This market will always be there, even when $150 netbooks are a reality.
2. Apple makes the OS, and can afford to make essentially zero on it if needed on a netbook.
3. Apple has done very well in consumer electronics this century.
1 and 3 really don't matter much to MS in this regard. Number 2, though, will be the tough one. They could possibly sell a $5 version of Windows for netbooks, although it won't be easy.
Just imagine, it could be cheaper to buy a netbook with Windows, and then use the Windows license on your full-powered PC (leaving you with a perfectly Linux-ready netbook), than it is to buy Windows retail (or even OEM).
Really, I think MS is much more vulnerable here. If you think about it, MS doesn't sell you anything tangible, just bits. At least Apple sells hardware. Once people stop seeing value in the bits (*if* that ever happens), MS has nothing to sell, and Apple does.
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Interesting)
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Informative)
Car Phone Warehouse sold an early version of the MS Wind which came with Linux but which didn't have drivers for the wifi or webcam. Wouldn't you return that? Unless you were a Linux geek or installing Windows, I'm sure that you would.
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
IIRC Acer's VP said that returns of their Linux netbooks are 30% higher than the Windows versions, however ASUS's CEO says that return rates for EeePcs are the same for Linux models as for Windows [laptopmag.com]
This probably reflects a difference between Acer and ASUS. Acer netbooks are sold as small notebooks, while the Eee aren't really sold as notebook replacements, but rather as their own, separate type of computer. Basically, people expect the Eee to be different than their Windows notebook or desktop, and so aren't immediately put off by the interface, whereas Acer customers are sold a "tiny laptop computer", buy the Linux version, and get upset when it's not exactly like what they're used to.
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
It's a phyrric victory. They've sacrificed the perceived cost of Windows by selling it at rock bottom prices. And prolonged the lifespan of XP at the cost of Vista penetration. In mitigation, they impose a bunch of arbitrary restrictions on OEMs for selling XP - http://www.netbooknews.it/en/netbook-xp-ecco-i-vincoli-microsoft/ [netbooknews.it] for details.
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Informative)
it wasn't Moore's Law, it was Microsoft financing and marketing kickback programs. Did you notice how Asus, after negotiating putting Windows XP on the EeePC they then changed the hardware such that the Linux versions were more expensive? We all know Linux distros easily run on anything Windows runs on but not the other way around. So Asus beefed up the hardware for the Linux models, beefed up the price, and then would only make 50% Windows based and 50% Linux based and some countries were no longer getting Linux versions at all.
It was monopoly money that changed the netbook market share numbers instead of market demand defining those numbers.
LoB
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
What sacrifice? It's good for customers. It's no sweat for Linux distributions. And hardware manufacturers have shown that they can make sufficient margins to make sub-$300 systems profitable, or they wouldn't be making them at all.
Parent
Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
Especially the newer LinuxBIOS, which kicks the tar out of that piece of proprietary and undocumented debris that AMI has been foisting on suckers for the past decade or so. Being forced to cooperate with a superior, open source BIOS such as that on the OLPC project. I'm looking forward to massive delight to Microsoft having to hold its news and get comfortable with the superior, much faster booting system to make Microsoft's painfully slow boot processes look bad.
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Insightful)
Can you explain why I, as a consumer, should care about having an open-source BIOS?
Pragmatic responses only, please. The average consumer doesn't care about open-source ideologies.
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Interesting)
Can you explain why I, as a consumer, should care about having an open-source BIOS?
Because you think it's spiffy going from cold metal to a login prompt in under two seconds, and because no single vendor is capable of delivering that on more than a small handful of hardware configurations.
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Re:Honeymoon is over (Score:5, Interesting)
yup, it's when Microsoft throws in all those extra marketing dollars and other kickbacks which usually define what an OEM ships preloaded. I had heard of an HP product based on Linux and Java getting canned because the HP marketing department said they'd lose money on the entire product line if the new Linux product shipped because Microsoft would cut off the payments for putting Windows on the systems.
Not every OEM is going to stand up against MS and not take the kickbacks when it means increased profits as long as the product sells. The problem for the OEM is when the user experience is diminished because Windows bloat and anti-virus requirements eats into sales. Microsoft would not care because they'd protect their market if the netbook market failed to get established as a regular device sector/market. They know they'll be losing money on this segment so its failure is good for them. Kinda how they blocked alot of uptake of the OLPC, got them to start playing with Windows, delay, delay, delay and now OLPC is floundering and still now Windows on OLPC.
ARM is a twist in this Microsoft is going to have a tough time with since there are too many advantages of that system for this market. The price goes down and Windows really has tougher time on the platform while Linux still does great and is easier for the OEM to customize for the product. I believe ARM is what is going to keep netbook growth going and prevent Microsoft from causing the market to shrink and this will eventually show up on their financials. IMO.
LoB
Parent
96% percent penetration eh? (Score:5, Funny)
Way to go Netbook! Getting to home base 96% of the time would make any frat boy proud.
Freebie? (Score:5, Interesting)
How does Redmond make an 80% gain in netbook market share without the sales numbers reflecting that gain?
By giving it away? B-)
Simple question, simple answer (Score:5, Insightful)
How does Redmond make an 80% gain in netbook market share without the sales numbers reflecting that gain?
That's easy, netbooks aren't sold in a comparable quantity, so a staggering increase of 80% reflects a tiny shift in the overall license count. Got any other braindead statistics questions for me?
Next Gen Arm based netbooks. (Score:5, Interesting)
Assuming that these figures are correct & MS has managed to grow their share of the netbook market....let's not forget:
1) They had to keep XP around to do so.
2) Linux has proved itself good enough that manufacturers will consider it.
3) Pulling the same stunt on the rash of $150 arm-based netbooks that will be hitting the shelves later this year will be much harder.
Re:Next Gen Arm based netbooks. (Score:5, Informative)
http://blog.laptopmag.com/ubuntu-confirms-linux-netbook-returns-higher-than-anticpated [laptopmag.com]
Parent
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (Score:5, Insightful)
I wonder if they count my shiny new Acer Aspire One? Yeah, it came with XP, and yeah, XP is still on the hard drive, but I installed Linux on the first day, and have spent about 1% of my time in Windows since then. I would call that a Linux computer, but I suppose they call it a Windows computer.
Re:Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (Score:5, Interesting)
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Re:Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (Score:5, Funny)
most of my friends that got netbooks with linux installed windows on them
Sounds like you need new friends
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Re:Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (Score:5, Funny)
Clearly all computers sold with linux should include the price of a windows license to combat piracy.
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Re:Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (Score:5, Funny)
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No cause for alarm, totally expected (Score:5, Interesting)
This isn't shocking at all. The netbook market isn't what it used to be, mostly I suspect because Microsoft AND the hardware makers recoiled in horror from what was happening. Look at the original netbook:
Old cheap Celeron CPU
7-9" Display
2-8GB Flash storage
512MB-1GB RAM
Weight 1KG
Price centered around $350 +/- $50
Now look at what passes for a netbook:
1.6Ghz Atom
10" Display
160GB HDD
1-2GB RAM
Weight 1-2KG
Price $300 to $500
The original specs couldn't run XP very well, and it wasn't an option. Vista was right out. So Microsoft brought back XP and everyone amped up the specs until it ran nicely. After all the new above average netbook was a kick ass desktop when XP was introduced.
Add in the fact all of the major netbook makers also make notebooks and desktops and thus need Microsoft's good will and it is easy enough to see how most netbooks now ship with Windows. Anyway, at the current prices and specs they are more like small laptops anyway and pretty much 100% of those have always shipped with Windows.
Wait for the ARM invasion. If hardware CAN run Windows vendors are always going to get pressured to load it. The ARM machines simply can't do it. Give a choice between a full Linux desktop, Android and WinCE and Microsoft's offering is going to come up a little short.
Sooner or later we will see netbooks under $200 and that is where things will get fun. If they give out Windows licenses cheap enough to put it on sub $200 units it will either force an across the board cut in all OEM licensing or really tick a lot of people off.
Re:WinCE vs Linux? (Score:5, Insightful)
> If you can do that with WinCE as well as Linux, then what difference does it make?
First off, Linux has a full software stack. A real working Firefox with most of the expected plugins, OO.o, etc. WinCE has what exactly? To date it, and the apps written for it, have mostly been geared around PDAs and smart phones, usually with a touch screen.
WinCE isn't Windows. The main advantage Windows has for the average customer is the known quantity. It's Windows, just like on the other machines they interact with at home, school, work, friends, etc. The same programs run, etc. WinCE has none of those advantages, in fact the association with Windows will only confuse as it will lead the clueless to think it IS Windows and then be disillusioned when it is discovered to be something completely different.
WinCE will raise the per unit cost of the machine though, and if it isn't to cut too deeply into Microsoft's profits it is going to have to cost a lot to keep the monopoly rents flowing in. Meanwhile the pengin is still Free except for the ARM port of the Flash plugin.
Parent
25$ Win XP? (Score:5, Interesting)
Microsoft is probably telling the truth (Score:5, Insightful)
This goes against the prevailing wisdom here, but Linux is not necessarily the best OS for netbooks.
The newest netbooks have about as much CPU power and memory as a notebook computer made 3 years ago. That's enough to run windows XP and older Microsoft applications such as office 2003.
And, Windows has the overwhelming advantage it always did : it has an enormous existing software library that still dwarfs that of Linux. An operating system is an enormously powerful natural monopoly. It's time to admit that the only way Linux or MacOS could ever pull ahead and have the diversity of software Windows has is if Microsoft royally screws up over a period of years. Windows ME didn't even scratch Microsoft's monopoly, because everyone kept using Win98, and it appears that Vista is the same way.
Finally, I've heard many complain that the netbook manufacturers don't properly choose a good Linux distro and configure it with all the software a user is likely to ever need. If the manufacturers did that, pre-installing open office and VLC media player and firefox and the rest, and tuned the distro behind the scenes to run blazing fast on a flash disk, then Linux might have stayed a viable option.
I would assume Microsoft has also adapated to this market : they must be offering a substantial discount on the software license for a netbook. Wouldn't surprise me if they were selling "XP for netbook use" for $20 a license. It could very well be that it is cheaper to pay Microsoft than it is to pay the technical support costs for Linux.
Re:Microsoft is probably telling the truth (Score:5, Interesting)
That's funny, the exact reason I bought a Wind was because I don't play fancy ass games much and that's why I prefer Ubuntu...
Since it's such a bitch to refund the copy of XP that came on my Wind, I just ripped off the key sticker and sold it to my friend for $25.
Parent
Let's not forget... (Score:5, Insightful)
Where can I buy a Linux netbook? (Score:5, Insightful)
Last week I walked into no fewer than 20 different computer stores here in Taiwan (the home of ASUS, Acer, MSI, etc), big and small, in order to buy a Linux netbook. But despite the fact that some of them displayed as many as 20 different brands and models, I found exactly 0 (zero!) netbooks shipping with Linux. Zero, nada, nothing! It just doesn't exist any more.
So yes, I believe Microsoft and its 96% figure. While people had choice between Linux and Windows, the figure was very different, but since the consumers are no longer offered a Linux option, even 96% seems low. The situation with netbooks is now exactly the same as with laptops - it's 2009 and it's still impossible to buy one without Windows pre-installed!
I always have to laugh when I read news about EU suing Microsoft for bundling a browser or a media player with Windows, but fails to see the real issue - Microsoft's complete stronghold over hardware manufacturers. ASUS, Acer, MSI, Dell, HP - they all "recommend Windows for everyday computing" on their web sites. Out of their free will, no doubt...
Yeah, but here's the thing... (Score:5, Insightful)
I got one of them fancy Samsung NC10 netbooks (Atom 1.6GHz, gig RAM, XP pre-installed).
My OS of choice?
Mozilla Firefox.
At least that's where I spend 99% of my time on it.
Aside from the fact that MS probably counts shipped units to come up with its "96%" claim, does it really matter whether Linux geeks or Microsoft (or both) claim me as a user? The underlying OS identity is about as relevant to me as the manufacturer of the 2.5" hard drive the unit comes with. I stuck with XP since it was the path of least resistance.
Discuss...
Not surprising (Score:5, Interesting)
We had an internship for a group of college students over winter break. For completing their task, they each got an Acer Aspire One. Most of the students had 2 - 5 year old laptops and the freaking netbooks had the same speed processors with more ram, larger HDD (120GB), and even more Video Ram (32MB vs 8MB shared).
Biggest complaints were lack of media drive and screen size. But after classes started again, they loved 'em. Perfect for taking notes and running most of their programs and they fit inside their backpacks without having to lug around an extra laptop bag.
But again, they all wanted XP. (and were glad it wasn't vista)