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What We Can Do About Massive Solar Flares
Posted by
kdawson
on Sun Apr 26, 2009 01:43 PM
from the resistance-may-not-be-futile dept.
from the resistance-may-not-be-futile dept.
Reader resistant sends in an update to our discussion a month back on the possibility of violent space weather destroying power grids worldwide during the upcoming solar cycle. Wired is running an interview with Lawrence Joseph, author of "Apocalypse 2012: A Scientific Investigation into Civilization's End," and John Kappenman, CEO of electromagnetic damage consulting company MetaTech. The piece brings two new threads to the discussion: the recently discovered presence of an unusually large hole in Earth's geomagnetic shield, magnifying our vulnerability, and possible steps we can take over the next few years to make the power grid more robust against solar flares and coronal mass ejections. There's also that whole Mayan 2012 thing. Quoting John Kapperman: "What we're proposing is to add some fairly small and inexpensive resistors in the transformers' ground connections. The addition of that little bit of resistance would significantly reduce the amount of the geomagnetically induced currents that flow into the grid. In its simplest form, it's something that might be made out of cast iron or stainless steel, about the size of a washing machine. ...we think it's do-able for $40,000 or less per resistor. That's less than what you pay for insurance for a transformer. [In the US] there are about 5,000 transformers to consider this for. ... We're talking about $150 million or so. It's pretty small in the grand scheme of things."
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Science: The Underappreciated Risks of Severe Space Weather 361 comments
circletimessquare notes a New Scientist piece calling attention to a recent study by the National Academy of Sciences, which attempts to raise awareness of the dangers of severe solar electromagnetic storms. "In 1859, amateur astronomer Richard Carrington noticed 'two patches of intensely bright and white light' near some sunspots. At the same time, Victorian era magnetometers went off the charts, stunning auroras were being viewed at the equator, and telegraph networks were disrupted — sparks flew from terminals and ignited telegraph paper on fire. It became known as the Carrington event, and the National Academy of Sciences worries about the impact of another such event today and the lack of awareness among officials. It would induce un-designed-for voltages in all high-voltage, long-distance power lines, and destroy transformers, as Quebec learned in 1989. Without electricity, water would stop flowing from the tap, gasoline would stop being pumped, and health care would cease after the emergency generators gave up the ghost after 72 hours. Replacing all of the transformers would take months, if not years. The paradox would be that underdeveloped countries would fare better than developed ones. Our only warning system is a satellite called the Advanced Composition Explorer, in solar orbit between the Sun and the Earth. It is 11 years old and past its planned lifespan. It might give us as much as 15 minutes of warning, and transformers might be able to be disconnected in time. But currently no country has such a contingency plan."
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There's only one solution (Score:5, Funny)
We must blow up the sun. But we must be quick, since there's only about 12 hours of darkness a day during which we can do it.
Re:There's only one solution (Score:5, Funny)
we could always do it during a cloudy day.
Parent
Re:There's only one solution (Score:5, Informative)
In other news, I saw this on digg a couple days ago. Grats to slashdot on shamelessly reposting digg content.
Digg doesn't create content.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Nice, you made a "score:2 Offtopic". I'm trying to generate a "score:3 Troll" myself.
I think you need a +1 weapon to damage a +3 Troll. And needless to say, you're going to need either fire or acid to kill it.
Re:There's only one solution (Score:4, Interesting)
surely there is nothing to stop a +5 offtopic (-1 offtopic, +4 underrated)
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Re: (Score:3)
When you say "there is nothing to stop a +5 offtopic", do you mean there's nothing to stop it happening, or that you would need a really powerful +5 magical weapon to stop it?...
Re:There's only one solution (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:There's only one solution (Score:4, Insightful)
Seriously, have you ever seen a female virgin paladin riding a winged unicorn who DOESN'T look hot in a chainmail bikini?
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Re: (Score:3, Funny)
"reposting digg content"? you're a sad, confused little man.
Re:There's only one solution (Score:5, Funny)
That's no way to talk about kdawson...
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Re:There's only one solution (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re:There's only one solution (Score:5, Funny)
The sun will see this coming from a MILE away. More than enough time to launch a counter-flare.
And then, the sun will get angry. You wouldn't like it when it's angry.
Parent
Re:There's only one solution (Score:5, Funny)
Also if you mess with Sun, you mess with Oracle.
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There should be a law (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:There should be a law (Score:5, Funny)
You don't understand how congress works, first they have to legalize solar flares, then they decide what size/shape/intensity will be allowed. Thus any outside the scope of the law will under the wrath of those in charge - I say we put Sen. Stevens in charge of the Solar Flare Committee. Perhaps he could go on a Junket, or Fact Finding mission to the sun... he could take oh.... all of his colleagues with him. If that doesn't stop the solar flares then we send Lobbyists...
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Re:There should be a law (Score:4, Funny)
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Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Act now! Avoid Doomsday! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Act now! Avoid Doomsday! (Score:5, Insightful)
Let's see, $150 million that the energy company executives can use to line their pockets, or to pay for something to prevent a disaster that might not really happen anyway but would cause damage that would be much more expensive to fix than prevent, and would cause utter chaos in the nation for an extended period of time.
There's only one outcome here. I don't know about you, but I'm gonna start outfitting my house like Chuck Heston's in The Omega Man.
~Philly
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Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
So if somebody is trying to sell you insurance, do you also assume that risks don't exist?
Whether or not the risk is real enough is something for scientists/physicists/engineers to determine; it has completely independent of whether or not somebody stands to make money from it. People have been making money selling solutions to actual problems for a very long time; the presence of a financial incentive doesn't automatically mean snake oil, as you seem to presume. In fact, the presence of financial incentive
Re:Act now! Avoid Doomsday! (Score:4, Informative)
So, he has determined a doomsday scenario that his company can prevent for $150 million?
He didn't "create" the doomsday scenario involved here, others, including scientists, have been considering this problem for awhile now. Note that TFA has links to two scientific reports that are entirely unconnected with the MetaTech CEO, one is from NASA itself, and the other is published by the National Academies and was funded by NASA.
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Re:I HAVE A BETTER IDEA! (Score:4, Funny)
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Re:Act now! Avoid Doomsday! (Score:5, Informative)
I wouldn't exactly call it a doomsday scenario. These flares happen fairly often.
The NASA funded report that is linked to from TFA is talking about a "Coronal Mass Ejection" [wikipedia.org] which is different from a solar flare, though they are sometimes both created by the same underlying event.
Basically a giant ball of high energy plasma (ionized gas) that is shot out of the Sun, sometimes reaching speeds of 1/3 that of light. Note that a fast CME would give us almost no warning time at all, even if we had detectors close enough to the Sun at the time to detect it. Detecting a CME is not as easy as noticing a solar flare, never mind the problem of determing how large/dangerous it is, then calculating whether or not its going to hit the Earth.
The last one to disrupt power was in March 1989 ...
A more relevant example would be the "1859 Solar Superstorm" [wikipedia.org]. This was a solar event that generated both a CME (that hit the Earth) and multiple solar flares. If an event like this happened *now*, with our extreme dependence on so many things electrical and electronic, it would be a first class catastrophe. That is not hype, although it would not be a "life-ending" kind of catastrophe, it could very well be a "life-as-we-know-it-now-ending" kind of catastrophe.
Note that a large CME could impact the Earth over several days, as the 1859 event did, so we are also talking about a potential *global* catastrophe, not a regional one.
Finally, TFA also links to another recent NASA report about a huge hole just discovered in Earth's protective magnetic shield, so the important point to take away from TFA is that we are about to enter a period of Solar Maximum [wikipedia.org] with a gaping hole in the only shield which protects us. Getting hit by a large CME now, with that hole in Earth's magnetic shield still present, would lead to a *really* bad day for humanity.
Parent
Fairly small resistors (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Fairly small resistors (Score:5, Funny)
They're not much bigger, but the larger resistors require a heatsink, and probably a few 12" fans. Preferably Zalman. With blue LEDs.
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Re: (Score:3)
> ...a few 12" fans.
Make that 12' fans.
> With blue LEDs.
Ignitrons.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
I've got the contract for the "DANGER: 1,000,000 OHMS" warning signs.
Seriously, the ones TFA talks about are only a few ohms, but capable of dissipating kilowatts.
Re:Fairly small resistors (Score:4, Funny)
...I'd hate to know what they call "huge resistors".
Now those damn stripes on Jupiter makes sense, it's color coded!
http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap070329.html [nasa.gov]
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Re:Fairly small resistors (Score:4, Informative)
or has NASA backtracked from calling 2008 the start of a new one?
Never mind, I just found a couple of things that suggest NASA, nor anyone else, really know when cycle 24 will actually start:
http://solarchaos.blogspot.com/2008/11/history-of-cycle-24-predictions.html [blogspot.com]
http://solarchaos.blogspot.com/2009/04/nasa-4.html [blogspot.com]
And this shows actual sunspots have been deviating from predicted sunspots for the last 6 months or so:
http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html [sidc.oma.be]
Parent
Interesting point that I'd never heard of, but... (Score:4, Informative)
I don't think they know what "science" is.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Interesting point that I'd never heard of, but. (Score:4, Informative)
When I hear our need for resistors to limit the damage of massive solar flares uttered in the same sentence as "the whole 2012 thing", the credibility for anything either one of these guys says is gone as far as I'm concerned.
It is unfortunate that we have this coincidence between the Mayan Long Calendar "prediction" for 2012, and the fact that we're entering a Solar Maximum period (which will peak in 2012) with a gaping hole in our planet's magnetic shield and a civilization extremely dependent on an electrical infrastructure that is itself extremely vulnerable to the effects of a large geomagnetic storm.
I leave it up to you as to whether you should ignore the latter just because of the former.
I don't think they know what "science" is.
"They" in this case aren't scientists, and aren't pretending to be. Note however that "they", and TFA, are all referring to scientific reports from NASA and the US National Academy of Sciences to base their ideas on.
I don't know about you, but I *do* think that NASA and the US National Academy of Sciences know what "science" is.
Parent
The myans? (Score:4, Insightful)
Come on. Anything and everything this article has to say is now more-or-less worthless because of that bit.
EU safe? (Score:5, Interesting)
As far as I know, the electrical grid in most of EU have always been protected against that. When government companies manage the grid according to set technical standards, it mostly is better managed than private contractors, that build as little as possible and as cheap as possible.
What's the actual problem? (Score:5, Interesting)
Unless I missed it, TFA left out the technical details of the problem and was filled with FUD language instead.
From what I saw on wiki [wikipedia.org], it's a quasi-DC current. Why can't we just install massive inductors that give high impedance to 60hz and pass DC? Wouldn't that cost less than $45k? Don't we already have static drain chokes? How does this affect current lightning protection shunts (or when they say the protection circuits pop, is that to what they're referring)?
Linemen chime in!
Re:What's the actual problem? (Score:4, Interesting)
No. Not inductors. Ideally, we want to provide the 60 Hz currents a low impedance path to ground, but block the DC currents. DC currents saturate iron core devices (transformers, generators, etc.) and can cause damage. Resistors limit both AC and DC currents, which is a trade-off. Ideally, a capacitor could block DC but allow AC to pass. But capacitors suitable for these voltage levels are VERY expensive.
In reality, simply adding resistors here and there is not the total answer. Although the DC currents will be reduced, the resistors can only dissipate power for a short time. And while they do so, they create a DC voltage drop which itself can cause equipment failure. What is needed is the addition of DC current sensing and protective relaying to trip breakers and protect the system. Sure, you'll have an outage. But one that may only last hours or a few days. Not the weks or months it will take to repair damage. Few utilities implement this kind of sensing, and then only on major lines. So they can't characterize their systems' DC current components during either 'normal' operations or solar storms.
Parent
The title of the book.... (Score:5, Informative)
"Apocalypse 2012: A Scientific Investigation into Civilization's End"
So many things wrong with this title...first of all, the word Apocalypse derives from Greek 'Apokálypsis' which basically means 'lifting of a veil' or revealing something that was previously hidden to the majority of the population. Currently apocalypse enters into most people's lexicon in the biblical sense referring to the end of days (aka revelation).
2012...well I think we've all seen the movie (trailer). The Mayan calendar puts the end of time at approximately December 21, 2012. But that's not even the Mayan's interpretation of 2012...it just some projected wish that has exploded into popular culture. Many Mayan scholars simply think that the Mayans were simply going to reset the calendar on that day back to zero.
Either way the scientific exploration to the end of our planet or species (which are different things and scenarios) should avoid religious or theological possibilities (because they aren't real).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_fate_of_the_universe [wikipedia.org]
Heat death of the universe and the big crunch are the two most likely scenarios (don't worry you won't be around for either of them). Heat death is basically where the universe becomes void of heat and motion and there is nothing left but immobile objects. The other best theory is the big crunch, basically where gravity pulls all objects together from existence into one singularity.
I always though that that singularity would interact with infinite absolute zero and most likely creates another big bang. If this is true then that would mean it could have happened an infinite number of times before, meaning time is an infinite loop and everything has happened before an infinite number of times and will happen again.
I haven't studied hard science in an academic environment for a while (I went to an amazing science oriented public high school) as I did my undergraduate studies in......sports broadcasting...so here's my disclaimer: some things above might be paraphrased or summarized incorrectly (I did my best).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risks_to_civilization,_humans_and_planet_Earth [wikipedia.org]
This article covers almost everything. Natural disasters occurring from earth (earthquakes, floods, global warming), to space based (gamma ray bursts, impact events), to human based events (nuclear war), to diseases and pandemics, and even things like an A.I. taking over or a singularity from nanotechnology taking over all life (search wiki for Grey goo), and then of course there is the probability (though unlikely) of aliens obliterating our planet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_of_human_beings [wikipedia.org]
There was a recent poll on Slashdot asking everyone when the last human would be born...
http://slashdot.org/pollBooth.pl?qid=1749&aid=-1 [slashdot.org]
http://slashdot.org/pollBooth.pl?qid=1751&aid=-1 [slashdot.org]
Oh...here comes my boss time to submit and get back to cutting Mets footage.
Re:The title of the book.... (Score:5, Funny)
Referred to in Mayan texts as "The Great Mayan Integer Overflow".
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Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
The other best theory is the big crunch, basically where gravity pulls all objects together from existence into one singularity.
I dunno if I'd subscribe to the big crunch theory -> infinite loop, mostly because runs counter to the idea of losing energy. Either creating the universe costs energy or creating a giant gravity well costs energy, and one of those is the lowest state of equilibrium. Granted though we, as a species, are very ignorant as to the mechanisms of gravity, and there could be a cosmological perpetual machine out there, but it seems to run counter to the theories we have learned so far.
Heath death seems more l
Time to put on my tinfoil hat (Score:4, Insightful)
Balderdash (Score:5, Informative)
Is my off-line data safe? (Score:5, Interesting)
At the risk of having my geek card revoked, I'll admit that I don't know zilch about solar flares and their impact on electronics. What concerns me the most is how my stored data will be affected. Hardware can be replaced, but data is volatile and (I presume) also susceptible to the sun's random bursts.
Will by HDDs keep their data? Is it important whether they're connected to the grid at the time of the flaare? Can solar flares harm optical media?
What good are backups on magnetic media (tape or disks or otherwise) if a single large flare could wipe them all out?
Please tell me I'm worrying about nothing...
CJ
Not ever (Score:3, Funny)
Will [m]y HDDs keep their data?
Never. Not with perfect, or even adequate, reliability. Not after a mega solar flare, and not before a mega solar flare either. Your data can disappear irretrievably in a millisecond at any time, by the very nature of hard drives.
Hope you keep three, or better yet more, copies of every piece of data, on separate media. Preferably different kinds of media. And in different geographical locations. Deep underground, but air conditioned.
And I hope you refresh all the copies of all the data to new media at
Re:Is my off-line data safe? (Score:5, Funny)
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Solar Cycle #24 is 2 years late! (Score:4, Interesting)
Solar Cycle #24 is about 2 years late and the sun is unusually quiet. We really don't need to worry much about solar flares. The thing is when solar cycles are late this means the next solar cycle typically is very quiet. Solar Cycle #25 has already been predicted to also be very quiet.
So for the next 20 years solar flares may be practically non-existent.
What this means is that we can expect an increase in high energy cosmic radiation.
Expect more bit flips in circuitry.
Expect shorted and cooler summers and longer more intense winters. This is due to the increased cosmic radiation creating nucleation points for water vapor condensation which will increase cloud cover. Increased cloud cover reflects more energy into space so the surface cools.
Anyone who is perceptive might note this is the opposite of global warming.
Re:Small and inexpensive resistors (Score:5, Insightful)
$40,000 and the size of a washing machine isn't exactly what you'd call small and inexpensive, certainly not compared to what most people would think of when you mention a resistor.
Well, the transformers to which they'd be attached are also a wee bit bigger than your average wall wart.
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Re:Small and inexpensive resistors (Score:4, Insightful)
Well, when you have several kiloamperes of current flowing in a circuit of several kilovolts (several megawatts of power), typical in a power grid, a resistor the size of a washing machine is actually rather small. Think of the sizes of the transformers that you see in power stations. I'm sure you know what they look like, and how big they are. The resistors most people think of are designed to deal with milliamperes of current over about 5 volts or so, milliwatts or at best watts of power. The washing-machine resistor has to deal with power levels a million to a billion times greater than that, and must have a size to match.
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Re:Small and inexpensive resistors (Score:4, Funny)
So, basically, you're saying that a trip to Radio Shack for these resistors is likely to be a waste of time?
So it's like most other trips to Radio Shack?
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Re: (Score:3, Informative)
After seeing the movie Knowing [wikipedia.org]. I couldn't help but think how screwed Humanity would be if the planet would be in the Wrong Place, at the Wrong Time.
After seeing the movie Knowing, I couldn't help but think that I wanted my nine dollars back. As end-of-the-world scenarios go, that one was pretty weak.
Re:Solar flares, eh? (Score:5, Interesting)
Congratulations... You have made such an obscure reference that the first search result was you actually making the reference... I don't think there is actually a prize for that though... Please don't kill yourself...
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