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Computer Mouse Heading For Extinction
Posted by
timothy
on Sun Jul 20, 2008 06:54 PM
from the how-much-would-you-like-to-bet dept.
from the how-much-would-you-like-to-bet dept.
slatterz writes "The computer mouse is set to die out in the next five years and will be usurped by touch screens and facial recognition, analysts believe. Steven Prentice, vice president and Gartner Fellow, told the BBC that devices such as Nintendo's MotionPlus for the Wii and Apple's iPhone point the way to the future, offering greater accuracy in motion detection."
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Submission: Computer mouse heading for extinction by Anonymous Coward
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The end of one-handed surfing? (Score:5, Funny)
But ... but ... I have a relationship with my mouse! It's one of the two things I have my hand on all day long. Oh, behave! I meant my keyboard.
Somewhat more seriously, do you really want your screen to have ... stuff all over it? Personally, I don't let anyone touch my screen. Or imagine an office with everyone yelling at their computer, "No, God damn it! The other left!"
Another GUI intervention lies just ahead (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:The end of one-handed surfing? (Score:5, Informative)
While I completely agree that I don't want anyone touching my screen (yuk!), there ARE better methods of inputting x/y coordinate data than a computer mouse. A tablet is certainly effective, but a little bulky for most desks. The trackball is also effective, but equally disgusting to me unless it's cleaned regularly. The track-stick is favored by many, but I never found it truly useful - probably because I can't seem to get the hang of it.
Another point to make is that the Wii Remote is (with the exception of the accelerometers) functionally identical to a computer mouse with the optical eye reading many images per second to detect motion. The method by which the receiving end translates the data into x/y coordinate data is certainly different, though.
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Re:The end of one-handed surfing? (Score:5, Interesting)
I love to skateboard, but by-and-large it's a lopsided method of exercise unless you constantly switch stance. I'd love to interact with my raster using two hands but the mouse has the advantage of configurability -- that is, you can change the cursor's speed and velocity to get more from less wtih the added bonus that it's a lot less intrusive onscreen than fingers are.
[sarcasm] Let's blame this on the gamers for holding back progress. First they prevent Linux from widespread desktop adoption and now this![/sarcasm]
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Gorilla Arm Syndrome (Score:5, Insightful)
Alternative navigation methods have come up from time to time, but apart from the trackball and cursor keys, pretty much all of them have the same drawback: They lead to what's known as the "Gorilla Arm Syndrome". We humans aren't designed to keep our hands extended and not resting on something for any length of time, and after a while, our arms will feel like they've weighted down with lead. Then, when you quit, you feel you have arms the size of a gorilla. And then the pain sets in.
This is the main reason why touch screens never took off any of the three times they were marketed as the new and wonderful thing. My guess is that this is a fourth attempt, which will meet with no more success.
Even graphic tablets can cause G.A.S., unless they allow you to rest your wrist and arm while using it. If they're much bigger than a mouse pad, many people will have problems.
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Re:Gorilla Arm Syndrome (Score:5, Informative)
We've done several studies of touch screens at my shop, mostly to answer the question: "which touch technology is best?" Last year we did another study where we installed various touch screen technologies on about a hundred cash registers, measured cashier performance, and collected cashier observations and feedback. We were expecting to get several complaints regarding comfort over time, others who found it easier to use, and were hoping to come up with a way to "justify" offsetting the complaints with the gains in productivity. These gains would first have to pay off the extra initial expense of the touch screen, but then would offer us labor savings.
But instead we were very surprised by the results of the study: the touch screens did not make the operators more productive. We saw absolutely no gains in performance. We even looked for a slight bump for new cashiers to demonstrate it was easier for them to learn on a touch screen, but we found nothing at all.
Regarding the cashier's comments, we consistently come up with the same results: a screen high and vertical enough to be very comfortably visible makes for an uncomfortable input device. This includes both touch screens and monitor-height keyboards, such as the NCR Dynakey [ncr.com]. Operators find the bent wrist position uncomfortable over time, and their arms get tired. Traditional keyboards at waist height are just as productive, but cost much less.
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Re:Gorilla Arm Syndrome (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re:Gorilla Arm Syndrome (Score:5, Insightful)
I wonder why people don't simply stick the monitor/touchscreen directly inside the desk?
Because after 40 hours/week, your neck and upper back are going to scream at you unless you're looking at the screen via a mirror.
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Re:Gorilla Arm Syndrome (Score:5, Insightful)
Some of us can barely handle that for 20 min at a time. This sort of bad posture leads to things like disc problems and serious long term damage.
It's ergonomically terrible. Just because schools and offices demand it does not make it good for the individual. When's the last time you saw somebody outside of grade school carrying a pack around that was almost as large as they were?
Applying pressure across the spine is the easiest way of damaging the spine outside of a freak accident.
And to answer your question no it isn't any different, which is why it shouldn't be changed. Monitors are ergonomically better than paper in most cases, going backwards makes no sense at all.
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Re:Gorilla Arm Syndrome (Score:5, Insightful)
Don't believe me? Do this, for one week, everything you read must be horizontal and perpendicular to your body. Come back after that week and let us know how you feel.
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Re:Gorilla Arm Syndrome (Score:5, Funny)
Kids can shuffle papers, pick them up, do all sorts of things. If the screen's built into the desk you're limited to shuffling your arse and picking it up.
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Re:Gorilla Arm Syndrome (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re:The end of one-handed surfing? (Score:5, Insightful)
On another note, what abouT FPS players? Does this analyst really think FPS players (of which there are MANY) will give up their mice? Not to mention the fact that touch screens require far more physical energy and require your arm to be lifted in order to use. Yeah, I don't expect touch screens to be anything more than a convenience where mice aren't available.
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Re:The end of one-handed surfing? (Score:5, Insightful)
Indeed, I dont think I will ever give up my mouse, at best I might sacrifice it to say a tablet and pen, but a touch screen and voice commands just will never be accurate or quick enough.
As for dirty screens, maybe in 5 years time, they will have developed some sort of nano-gunk-eating stuff you can wipe on your screen that turns the gunk into oxygen, or a revolving protective cover (like outdoor CCTV camers) and then cleans the gunk off and uses it in some cold fusion cell to power the PC...
Besides, since screens seem to be getting smaller, I really dont see that coinciding with the lack of a pointing device, although, if the entire keyboard was a touch-pad (or two touch screens, one screen, one keyboard), and you held down the [use as mouse] button (somewhere at a corner) then release button, etc that might work.
Although, there's also the borg option, have some connection into your forearm muscles or something, or directly to your brain, then maybe the mouse would become "old school".
As for vocal things, that'l never work in public, unless its directional, and in offices you'd probably have to make their cages (cubicals) more air-tight, or have sound proofing, even though phones are common, they aren't quite as pollutive (?) as an almost constant ranting of commands at your PC.
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Re:The end of one-handed surfing? (Score:5, Insightful)
The idea of the mouse dying out is entirely idiotic.
What am I going to do, reach my hand all the way out two feet in front of my face to drag a window across my dual 30" screens from one side to the other? Keep my arms constantly extended out in front of my face so I can touch the monitors?
Monitors are expensive enough as they are right now. Without adding touch screen ability to them. Not to mention that the typical home LCD can't exactly handle lots of finger oils and smudges regularly.
And yes, I'm totally going to write code or navigate the web with a Wii motion controller. Or an iPhone. Or by furrowing my brow on my face.
This guy is no Alvin Toffler. He needs to relenquish futurism to someone better suited.
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Re:The end of one-handed surfing? (Score:5, Funny)
Just dip the hands in some liquid nitrogen no need to pry just smash
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In theory, I'll agree. (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:5, Insightful)
Dont forget: joysticks.
There is no way in hell the mouse is going to disappear, especially not to touchscreens, for the same reason joysticks are still around: games. Try playing a game with a touchscreen and not a mouse, not as much fun. There are some things touchscreens can replace, but FPS games are not one of them, and that is a BIG game segment.
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Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:5, Interesting)
I wouldn't use a touchscreen for an FPS either...and I don't think that's what the article was getting at. I'd imagine the Wii-style "gun" movement is what would replace mice for those kinds of games, and as good as I have become at "shooting" with a mouse I still look forward to having the motion interface become the standard.
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Mice are not going anywhere. (Score:5, Insightful)
The problem is, none of those technologies are superior to mice.
Look at your desktop. Look at where your monitor is. Look at where your mouse is.
Now, what is easier - reaching up to your monitor every time you want to move the cursor, or reaching over to the mouse?
Mice are more precise than fingers. Mice are less strain than pointing devices.
These analysts are idiots. Technology doesn't get replaced with new technology that doesn't work as well as the existing technology. And mice are better at what mice are used for than any other input device available in the desktop/laptop environment.
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Re:Mice are not going anywhere. (Score:5, Funny)
I haven't had mod points since... ...2003, but if I had some now they would be yours.
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Mice aren't that great either (Score:5, Insightful)
That's true, but on the more-precise-than-fingers point, I think it's only correct when you're very strict about your definition of "precise". Keep in mind that you're taking a very flexible arm and hand with 4 fingers and an opposable thumb, and using it to control a device that's about as complex as a baseball bat. (Move it thump move it thump.)
Mice are specifically more accurate than fingers when it comes to accurately indicating tiny screen points in a way that strictly logical software can unambiguously interpret, but you're still losing a lot of flexibility of your hand and fingers as an input device just to remove this ambiguity.
Personally I'm skeptical if touch screens (as they are today) will replace mice, and generally I think Gartner's full of crap when it comes to this and just about everything else they claim to predict, but a mouse isn't exactly a perfect device. It just happens to balance accuracy and utility between humans and the current day's computers better than anything else we have at the moment.
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Re:Mice are not going anywhere. (Score:5, Insightful)
So all we need is reliable, cheap, unobstrusive brainwave detection within the next few years to make that prediction come true. Oh, and I'd like a pony while we're at it.
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Re:Mice are not going anywhere. (Score:5, Insightful)
That's only true if their goal is to accurately predict the future. If their goal is to write a controversial article that will show up on front page of slashdot and drive gazillion of clicks to their site then they are very very smart
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Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:5, Funny)
I know what a PS/2 port is, and my father-in-law showed up with one of these so-called "floppy" disks once so I know what that is...
But just what the heck is a parallel port? :)
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Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:4, Insightful)
This. I've been using mice since 1986(ish). It's not going away anytime soon as touchscreens aren't standard on desktops. and I rarely use my touchscreen on my laptop - I'll use the mouse instead. There will have to be a big UI shift before mice become obsolete and disappear. The speed that Linux and Windows move at means this will take a long long time to do.
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Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:5, Insightful)
So the mouse will probably remain for the foreseeable future.
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Remember how keyboards died out? (Score:4, Funny)
If the keyboard could get killed of then why can't the mouse?
People bitch about RSI etc when using a keyboard/mouse. VR or reaching across your desk to operate a touch screen will be far more strain over a day of desk work or a few hours of gaming/emailing whatever.
About the only area where touch screen is practical is in walk-up kiosks and handheld devices.
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Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re:In theory, I'll agree. (Score:4, Insightful)
And no, I wouldn't recommend using a Sixaxis or Dualshock controller either, at least not for that purpose.
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5 years? (Score:5, Insightful)
hahahhahahahaha I call bullshit on that. Taking all bets.
Because the mouse is old will never replace the fact it is an incredibly intuitive and powerful HID. You can use it all day without getting sore (mostly) and best of all, it wont accidentally trash half your files if you sneeze and move your hand at the same time.
Voice recognition! This time for sure! (Score:5, Interesting)
Don't forget that every so often some "analyst" will predict that "voice recognition" will replace whatever input method you currently use.
Still hasn't happened.
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Re:Voice recognition! This time for sure! (Score:4, Insightful)
Never will, who wants to talk all day? Though I personally feel like voice recognition will become a supplement. I can imagine saying "close window" etc as being useful. Though, if you aren't alone, you are going to look like you have lost your mind. I also don't want someone walking past being able to tell my computer to trash half my files :)
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Analysts headed for extinction (Score:5, Funny)
The profession of "analyst" is set to die out in the next 5 years. The use of analysts to predict the future based on unsupportable extrapolation of early technology trends will start to decline in 2008 and the profession will be totally gone by 2014. These analyst predictions will be replaced with predictions from other sources such as Ouija boards, re-purposed water witches, and randomly clicking on a document with a computer mouse and forming a sentence with the words.
Of course, the best way to tell the future is to wait until it becomes the present and then watch what happens. News sources once used that method to report news, but it fell out of favor due to narcissism and delusions of grandeur among journalists. Journalists found that the couldn't always control events that happened or the facts reported. Predictions don't have this limitation because the predicted events are fictional at the time the story is written.
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Re:5 years? (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re:5 years? (Score:5, Insightful)
I think the problem is that you're not imagining or remembering much.
I agree that the mouse isn't going anywhere very quickly, but this sort of example doesn't fly as a reason. I think the main reason that monitors are vertical surfaces is because of the history, CRTs couldn't be put on much of a profile other than vertical just because of their bulk. Flat panel displays are free from this limitation. So really, the input could be on an adjustable slant like an old drafting table. I think 30 degrees from horizontal might be pretty comfortable and ergonomic. I used that kind of drafting table in school, this was just before CAD came in. I recall it being quite comfortable, offering a good arm rest and an expansive working area. I worked on drawings that were about as big as the current 30" monitor. It might even have room for a real keyboard below for heavier typing needs.
I'm saying that my proposed solution will be accepted beyond a niche use, but I think it is a valid solution to your objection.
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The last thing I'd want (Score:5, Insightful)
Ohhhh, crystal balling bullshit, gotta love it! (Score:5, Interesting)
The advent of the mouse killed the keyboard, too, after all. And the internet made TV obsolete, which killed newspapers a few decades ago.
Slowly I get really fed up with such predictors. I have a touchscreen. Actually, I'm using it right now as a display for writing this. Do I use it? Usually, no. I use it at certain special occasions, but it certainly does not replace my mouse. Why? Because it's inconvenient! I have to lift my arm, lean to my screen, aim with my finger and ... miss usually my mark.
And now, try to right-click. Or do a sensible click-drag operation.
Seriously, does anyone still listen to those modern soothsayers?
Typical Gartner Crap (Score:5, Insightful)
So, to increase accuracy, I'm supposed to slap at the screen with my pizza-slopped fingers? Facial recognition? Maybe banging my head on my desk will act as a signal to restart Windows yet again.
Somebody who has some obscure input device, which will "kill the mouse", probably paid Gartner to conduct yet another bogus study that seeks to convince people what technology to use as opposed to demonstrate what they are actually using.
Sure it will (Score:4, Interesting)
I wonder if the author has ever tried to stand upright and move a Wiimote around for 8 hours a day 5 days a week.
No? Can't handle it? Didn't think so.
Motion input is cool for things like games but it will never replace the mouse because humans simply are not designed to hold their arms out in front of their bodies for long periods of time.
Another prediction of doom (Score:5, Insightful)
will be usurped by touch screens and facial recognition
I guess the guy never used touch screens, that's why he is so sure. And nobody "used" facial recognition so far, that makes it even a better idea...
The most basic issue here is the interface. People don't write with facial contortions. We write with our hands. Why? Because our hands are the most precise tools that we have, and they are well built for the task.
However our hands (and arms) are not good for holding them, for hours, in front of a vertical surface of a screen. Many screens are positioned so that the "touch" interface is therefore impossible. Besides, there isn't enough precision in our fingers even if we wear claw-like stylus. Mouse can be, and often is configured to translate larger movement of the sensor into a very precise, sub-millimeter movement of the cursor. This is necessary in most applications, selecting from a menu being an example. Touch screens do not allow this "magnification" of the movement, as well as any non-linear response (that is also common.)
The input devices will likely change over time, but unless our bodies change also the mouse or a touchpad interface will remain useful for a long time, just like a keyboard. I personally believe that we will have direct brain control over the mouse and keyboard functions earlier than we will be able to replace the mouse with a better mouse - it's a simpler task. It's also probably possible to design a crude AI that is just enough to decode speech; but the speech interface is not very efficient either - try to talk for an hour and see what happens to your throat.
All these predictions are just noise made by people who want to attract undeserved attention. There is nothing wrong with a mouse as it is now, and there should be no rush to replace it with something that is not tested and by all reasoning can't even work. The mouse works, we test it for decades by now.
Wrong wrong wrong. (Score:5, Insightful)
This is, as always, wrong. Analysts never get this stuff right. The iPhone has shown the ability of a touchscreen with multi-touch to have a great interface. Notice that the iPhone was never a device with a mouse. Phone don't have mice (except for trackballs on some blackberries).
I'd love some of that multi-touch goodness in OS X. Let my trackpad start doing it. But let's get real here. We need mice.
All our interfaces are designed around them and keyboards. They are cheap (under $5 for a simple optical). They are precise. They are familiar. They need very little physical movement (just tiny wrist movements). A tablet gives you the precision a mouse does. I'd say they are far more likely to take over than generic touchscreen. Perhaps combos like Wacom Centiqs.
I'm w aiting for the FPS that figures out a way to use touchscreens for precision aiming.
The Wii has shown us some great things, but that's for games. How many people do you think want to waggle their way through creating powerpoint presentations?
I've got a Wii. What do some the best control schemes often use it for? That's right... a mouse! LostWinds (just finished, great game) uses it as a pointing device. Metroid Prime 3 uses it for aiming much like a mouse. Zack & Wiki (when not performing motions) uses it like a mouse. Every menu in every game uses it like a mouse. The console's own menu uses it like a mouse. And when Pikmin 3 comes out I'm willing to bet a fair bit of money that it will use the control mostly as... a mouse.
The mouse is just about the perfect 2D interface. There is probably a reason we've been using them for over 25 years (it's been about that long since the Macintosh came out, and I'm well aware they were available before that). When we get a real 3D interface (like some kind of hologram projecting surface/table) then we may need a new input device some of the time, but for now, the mouse will be around for a very long while.
Gartner Fellow Fool (Score:5, Insightful)
Facial recognition doesn't even work at all, even on specialized HW, SW, and selected test subjects. In 5 years, maybe it might work occasionally. Not replace the mouse. Nor will any of those other brand new special skills input devices. Hell, the majority of PCs even now are probably about 5 years old, and we're about to plunge into a "recession" that won't even have the vast debt to prop it up that the past decade had.
Gartner has always been nothing but a PR mill to market "mindshare" of directions in computer industry trends. I've never read a Gartner report or employee (or "Fellow", which must really take bribing) that was anything other than "Big Computer Corp X wishes this report would come true".
Think about the gaming magazine "reporting" you read, and how it's all PR. Big computer corps, like Apple, Microsoft, Dell - and probably Sony, Nintendo etc, all trying to become "computer" corps or their synthesis - have even more money to buy reporting. And Gartner isn't even saying it's "journalism". It's like those 1990s Internet Bubble stockbrokers' in-house "analysts", whose reports always said that whatever stocks the brokerage was vested in would go nowhere but up. In fact, those fake analysts are still doing the same thing, and the market is still a wasteland because of it. Gartner has even less accountability, and even less of a track record of guessing right, rather than wishing hard.
I bet Gartner predicted in 1999 that by 2008 we'd all have Aeron chairs and foosball tables.
Yeah, 'cause accuracy is never required (Score:5, Informative)
how many people click the "bold" toolbar button when typing something? Keyboard shortcuts beat the mouse in speed, efficiency, and accuracy. They simply require experts (as in an expert system) to use. You've got to know that they exist. BUt could you imagine typing 60 words per minute, and then taking ten seconds to make a few words bold?
Touch screen accuracy is terrible. And it's got nothing to do with the technology. My finger is larger than one pixel. Oh, and my arm blocks my view of the rest of the screen.
You know, this is the same garbage that minority report showcased. Of course it's really cool to do video editting with your arms. Ever gone to the gym and taken boxing as a fitness effort? The most difficult part of boxing is not getting punched in the face -- that's pretty easy. The most difficult part about boxing is holding your hands up for an hour.
I manufacture kiosks and develope kiosk solutions. The only reason that kiosks are touch-screen is because 90% of the public using them don't know how to use a mouse with any sort of speed -- and we're selling tickets on these kiosks to thousands of people each day. Speed matters. And when it comes to accuracy, each on-screen button is is a minimum of one two inches wide by a minimum of one inch tall, with a minimum of one centimetre of space around the button.
All of these great input interface devices are incredibly snazzy, and excellent for particular things. But they are never better than the simpler interfaces for simpler things. A button is a perfect input device -- it's discrete. You know what to do with it, it doesn't require you to look at it, you know when you've pushed it. That's why keyboards benefit from feedback, travel, and texture. That's why there's a little bump on the "5" keypad key, the "5" on my mobile phone pad too, and the "2" and "4" on my car stereo -- I don't have to look at any of them. I can drive, and dial the phone without taking my eyes off of the road.
You can't do any of that with a mouse. It's completely useless without looking at the screen. Could you imagine typing on a touch-screen-type keyboard? No travel, no feedback, no texture, no way to know if you've hit the key at all, let alone the correct one.
In our kiosk manufacturing, touch-screens have another benefit. You can say things like "press here" or "touch here" and people do. It's amazing how many directions are required to teach the public to use something that you think is easily used -- like swiping a credit card. Photographs, animations, the works, and still people swipe their card into the seam of the lcd bezel -- or try to cram it into the animation on the screen. And now some people expect us to use multi-touch screens -- good luck teaching the general public to perform gestures to buy their show tickets.
Oh, by the way, finger prints -- I hope you aren't using your screen for anything important.
Telepathy is the same game. Neural interfaces sound like they're so easy to use. Think about clicking the button, and you'll click the button. "hey, I think all the time, thinking is easy". Sure, you think all the time. But how many times do you think about only one thing? That takes incredibly focus. I don't want to have to meditate for every click, thanks.
Currently, my body has a huge filter. No matter how much I think, my finger only moves when I move my finger. So I can think about pressing button, I can remember pressing it last time, I can think about not pressing the button, and can think that the button is an ugly colour, and stil I haven't pressed it.
The trouble with a bad neural interface is that you need to meditate for every action. The problem with a good neural interface is that it has no idea as to the degree of your intention -- positive nor negative.
So, much like the mouse, a neural interface is great as an analogue input device, and horrible as a discrete one. Think about a simple 2D graphics app -- photo shop, for example. "draw a line" is easy wi
Similar things were said about the (Score:4, Insightful)
knob many years ago- recently listed as one of the top ten inventions of the 20th century I would think the mouse ranks up pretty high on the list as well. I don't think its going away very soon. In the case of the knob, modern equipment that uses computer menus and such for the same function has been judged by many people to be unwieldy and doesn't easily provide feedback to the user in real time.
jumping on the band wagon. (Score:5, Insightful)
I skimmed the article. I may have missed a clause where the entire interview was taken downwind of a chemical plant. However...
Citing the announced Wii Motionplus dongle? Really? We were all ignoring things like the gyromouse and other presentation devices/gimmicks for years because all us desk slaves just didn't have the accuracy we would need that a couple extra accelerometers would afford us?
Facial recognition? That deserves a big "whiskey tango foxtrot", as the only thing I've heard of that is for authentication (granted, it tends to get foiled by showing the camera a picture, but that's a different argument) This is a replacement for the mouse, how?
Touchscreens..because pen computing begat tablet computing begat whatever this new thing is. Did someone fix the problem of gorilla arm [die.net] and forget to inform the rest of the world?
Re:analysts...or just bored idiots? (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:Mouse and touch solve different problems (Score:4, Insightful)
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