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Steve Wozniak Predicts Death of the IPod
Posted by
samzenpus
on Thu Oct 09, 2008 02:54 AM
from the for-whom-the-bell-tolls dept.
from the for-whom-the-bell-tolls dept.
Slatterz writes "Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, better known in the industry as 'Woz,' believes that the iPod is on its way out and has revealed his discomfort with some aspects of the iPhone. Wozniak said that the iPod has had a long time as the world's most popular media player, and that it will fall from grace due to oversupply. Wozniak also commented on the iPhone's proprietary nature and locked service provider, and compared it to Google's open Android platform. 'Consumers are not getting all they want when companies are very proprietary and lock their products down,' he said. 'I would like to write some more powerful apps than what you're allowed.'"
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Submission: Steve Wozniak predicts death of the iPod by Anonymous Coward
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I don't think most people care that it's locked (Score:5, Informative)
I can't understand the appear of iXXXX's either. Locked proprietary technology with limited scope for a geek to truly enjoy.
What I've noticed though is that the people who buy them don't seem to care...
Sure they'll die, but I doubt they'll die just because there's something better on the market.
And as for open alternatives? I've had a Symbian phone for years. Lots of free apps and developer tools, built in GPS and great touch screen, been around for years... That didn't stop the iPhone coming out either.
GrpA
Re:I don't think most people care that it's locked (Score:4, Insightful)
What I've noticed though is that the people who buy them don't seem to care...
Perhaps not directly, but over time the Android platform will likely build up a more impressive library of apps written by tinkers and hobbyists who did care. Even non-geek users will eventually notice the difference.
Parent
Re:I don't think most people care that it's locked (Score:5, Insightful)
How is the parent labelled insightful? Oh I understand, its the usual FOSS love in. Android will be open and succeed in the same way that Linux has replaced every other OS on the planet. Oh, it hasn't? That would be my point then.
This sort of post is typical of slashdot in that it shows that there is a basic lack of understanding of the wider world. Non-geeks don't care what XXX is running. They just want it to be able to do what they want. They want it to be as easy as possible to use and anything else is a bonus. Apple get this. In general Slashdot users and FOSS advocates don't.
Put it another way. There are many digital music players on the market with more features than the iPod. Why does the iPod continue to dominate? Its easy to use. On the Gadget Show on UK TV this last Monday they did a comparative test between three portable video players. One was a the iRiver Clix 2, one the Archos 5, the final the iPod Touch. They had a BBC Radio 1 DJ help choose between them. He went for the iPod Touch despite it not having the best sound because it was the easiest to use and looked good.
Parent
Re:I don't think most people care that it's locked (Score:5, Insightful)
I can't understand the appear of iXXXX's either. Locked proprietary technology with limited scope for a geek to truly enjoy.
What I've noticed though is that the people who buy them don't seem to care...
You answered yourself with the second sentence; iPods and iPhones aren't targetted at geeks.
I'm no (current) Apple fan and don't own any Apple products. However, from a consumer POV, Apple got an awful lot of things 'right first time' with the iPod and iPhone. They're intuitive and stylish and give you the right functionality as simply as possible. It's like Nokia did when cellphones became popular a few years ago - deliver a 'must have' consumer product that feels right.
Woz is a remarkable guy, a bit of a hero to me. But he's no consumer product guru.
Parent
Re:I don't think most people care that it's locked (Score:5, Insightful)
This exemplifies your fundamental mistake. If a normal person finds themself having to use terms like "operating system", "firmware" and "crash" in relation to a telephone or a digital music player, then that is a fail. People want to make telephone calls or listen to music. They do not care about the operating system or the firmware or the ideology of the developers until the phone stops working and then they'll just start cursing it.
People might be getting more sophisticated and knowing what operating system is running on all of their personal devices, but it's not because they want to, it's because the products are crap and don't shield the consumers from their underlying workings properly.
Actually, this example demonstrates preciseley the opposite of the point you were trying to make. The phone operator is still there, it's a computer instead of a person, but the interface between the users and the operator has been simplified to the point where most of us have only the vaguest idea that it's there, how it works or what it does. We just type in the number of the person we want and we are connected. The operator is completely invisible.
Parent
Re:I don't think most people care that it's locked (Score:5, Insightful)
What I've noticed though is that the people who buy them don't seem to care...
The only reason they don't care is because they haven't seen that the grass is greener on the open side of the fence.
It is hard to miss what you don't know. But should Android or even a WinCE system get a few cool toys that apple explicitly forbids, that green light of envy will start to burn bright.
I've had a Symbian phone for years. Lots of free apps and developer tools, built in GPS and great touch screen, been around for years... That didn't stop the iPhone coming out either.
Because the iphone had a cool new interface that no other phone had. But its going to be a tough battle for Apple to keep ahead of the other platforms when they are deliberately excluding software that people want.
Parent
they care about functionality, though (Score:5, Insightful)
End users don't care about specs, but they do care about functionality.
Features like downloading and syncing over the air, updating podcasts, shopping at multiple music stores, place shifting, better E-mail clients, and laptop Internet access matter even to non-geeks, and Apple is preventing a lot of that from happening.
I think the reason that hasn't mattered for initial iPhone sales is because most US consumers are so inexperienced with smart phones that even the iPhone seems like a big step forward and because the only other smart phones US carriers are pushing are the Blackberry and Windows Mobile shit, often with carrier restrictions. But Android and Symbian are going to change that. We'll have to see whether Apple can reverse course quickly enough, because it won't be long before regular users do care about all this.
Parent
Re:they care about functionality, though (Score:5, Insightful)
The iPod just works, and that's all there is to it. Apple got it right,
I have an iPod Touch and a Mac. There's a lot of stuff that's broken on the iPod Touch: text input is slow and error prone, screen rotation is sluggish and inconsistent, touch gestures are inconsistent, applications crash with fair frequency, the Mail interface sucks, there is no document viewer, off-line support is nearly non-existent, using it with multiple machines is impossible (laptop+desktop), and on and on. Until fairly recently, syncing often took 1/2h.
Claims that it "just works" or that "Apple got it right" are Apple marketing fluff, not reality. I looked at the iPhone as a phone for my mother (she wants to send SMS and E-mail) and it was just too complicated with syncing and software updates and soft keyboards and all that crap. She now has a phone that really "just works", and it isn't from Apple (or Microsoft).
Parent
iPhone discomfort, yes (Score:4, Insightful)
I did read tfa. His prediction on the iPod does not seem to take apple's innovation history.
I do agree with his discomfort with the iPhone. Apple had the chance to revolutionize the cell phone market in the US and flubbed it.
Out of touch (Score:5, Insightful)
I would like to write some more powerful apps than what you're allowed.
Clearly Woz is not in Apple's demographic. It's been said time and again: Apple succeeds at delivering coherent, easy-to-use products that admirably perform tasks that typical non-techy users require. As long as Apple continues to design the products with that mentality, they will do well. If the iPod/iPhone stops selling briskly, it will be because everybody who wants one already has one, not because an Android phone lets you ssh into your home slackware server.
Re:Out of touch (Score:5, Insightful)
Besides, the iPhone already is open, at least unofficially. I can in fact SSH from mine, and have been able to ever since I got it. I am a techie user, and I'm perfectly satisfied with my iPhone.
I'm sure Woz is sort of conflicted by the fact that, as much as he might want to, it would be impolitic for him to announce he had jailbroken his phone.
Parent
Re:Out of touch (Score:5, Interesting)
Regarding iPhone vs Android, Android has some key advantages:
1) Multiple service providers. Not everyone wants to be locked into the one provider that Apple supports.
2) Multiple handsets. If I don't like the base iPhone, I have no other choices. Android is going to be on a wide variety of different devices.
3) Cost. If another company is developing your phone's OS, you can put less of your own resources into it and sell it for cheaper.
4) Application availability. Apple is known for rejecting apps on a whim. You can download whatever you want on an Android phone.
Users do care about openness, not necessarily because it's openness, but rather for the things that it allows.
Parent
discomfort is a feature (Score:4, Funny)
Maybe not quite in the discomfort-with-lack-of-openness sense that he meant it, but the iPhone is supposed to be a temperamental item to own, much like a Chihuaha [bogost.com].
Engineer's eyes. (Score:5, Insightful)
Woz is looking at the iPhone with engineering eyes, not consumers eyes. It's a strange culture shock to geeks when they find out the universe of non-geeks doesn't work like them. Yes, the API is locked down, yes, it is locked to a single service provider but the average user really REALLY doesn't care. Even if they do know better, they really don't care. It's why McDonald's sales are high. They know a better burger, but they don't care. I'm not sure if this is a problem or not, to be quite frank. But when a geek tells me is a better solution, they're not realizing that "better" is incredibly subjective. Yes, OpenMoko is open, but is that better to me? I don't want to edit config files unless i'm being paid for it.
Is the iPod going to die out? Sure. Not before moving much much more product in the mean time.
They're all going (Score:5, Insightful)
Not Apple's Demographic (Score:5, Insightful)
Apple is in the business, especially for consumer devices, of promoting solutions. This is a big differentiator from the competitors who usually focus on feature checklists and component integration.
However, someone like Woz is a hacker in the purest sense of the word - he wants to get tools and pieces that he can use to make his own solutions. An iPod he cannot change things on is not something he's interested in.
But for most people, the fascination with Apple comes simply from Apple 'getting it' - most consumers want to pay for problems to be solved for them, not to be given tools to learn to solve the problems themselves.
Woz is a genius, but not a marketplace genius (Score:5, Insightful)
Steve Wozniak is a smart guy but he is, to put it mildly, an extreme "power user". He left Apple to develop a programmable IR remote control (http://www.ktronicslc.com/core.html) with 256 functions split over 16 code pages.
It had programmable macros, scheduled timers, and absolutely no way to label what a button *does*. If the batteries ever ran down it had to be re-flashed via a serial link. It's technically sweet, it filled a niche that Woz perceived in his daily life, and it remains completely unusable for 99.9% of the world's population. (I'm sure it generated some fantastic patents, though!)
I would trust Steve Wozniak to design firmware for a battery powered car, or to build a lifesaving medical device, or to write a graphical Tetris clone that fit entirely in the unused bytes of a LILO boot sector. But I don't think his opinions on the marketability of consumer electronics are worth a damn.
Goodbye, cruel world (Score:5, Funny)
First evolution gets cancelled [slashdot.org] and now there's no more iPods? If it wasn't for the fact that I've got a ton of money in the bank I think I'd jump off a bridge.
More people are just using their cell phones (Score:5, Interesting)
I ride on trains and a subway to work every day. About a quarter to a half of the passengers have headphones stuffed into their ears. Most of the times the headphones are connected to a cell phone, and not an MP3 player.
Granted, where I live even kids in their early teens have cell phones.
If you have a cell phone that offers good quality audio, why bother with an extra gadget?
Normal vs. Geek (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Interesting)
I hate to say it, but I bought an iPod Classic 80 GB about a year ago. Before that I owned an iAudio 30GB XL player, but the screen broke on that one.
This iPod of mine is in use every day. I use it in the car (hooked up to the car stereo via a built in Aux Jack) for my 2.5 hours of commuting, I use it on planes, I hook it up to my home system to randomly meander through the 850 albums I ripped on it (it's too small though, it won't fit my entire collection). I use it at the office with my Altec Lansing travel speakers to provide me with tunes.
The battery still runs ~28 hours if I don't screw around with the screen too much, and the thing operates flawlessly. Plus, the fact that I got six ways of finding the same song (Search, Genre, Artist, Song, Album, Compilation browsing) and all the trimmings of cover information display and whatnot make it a pretty sweet device. Objectively speaking (and I didn't want to even like the iPod because I've never been a Mac fan with their closed platform bollocks), it is still the best player out there even if they're seeing competition from MicroSoft according to critics. But the market has voted with its wallet.
When this one does, I'm hoping I can replace it with the same device, except a ~250 GB Solid State version. So as long as they keep up with the Joneses, I don't see how Wozniak will be right in the foreseeable future. Then again, on a long enough time scale, and product/individual/company/society has a survival rate of zero, right? Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that axiom out.
Parent
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Interesting)
I just traded up from a Sansa e270 6gb to an iPod Nano 8gb. It is -so- much better.
Granted, I haven't put thirdparty firmware (Rockbox) on my Sansa, but I absolutely hated my Sansa. You -have- to use their proprietary software to put video on it. Guess what happens if you lose your CD? You have to BUY a new one! They won't let you download it. Apple's software (iTunes), while still proprietary, is extremely easy to get another free copy of.
I never DID get playlists to work correctly on my Sansa. Podcasts worked okay when used with iTunes, but not at all otherwise. If you put it in USB stick mode, it reports every time you unplug it.
I've never tried games on my Sansa, but games on iPod Nano 4th gen are great. They are very clear, sound great, and the accelerometer lets me play games like 'Maze' (aka Labyrinth) where you guide the ball around the maze by tilting.
I'm far from a Mac fanboy. I say 'It just works!' in a nasty tone about 3 times a day at work, where we're all on Macs and have as much problems with the Mac Pros and xServe as any Windows machine I ever used. My personal preference there is Linux, too.
But the iPod is done right. It's going to be very hard to improve on it.
Parent
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Informative)
Not to be a prick, but I've used a Sansa (previously) and an iPod video (now) regularly, and:
1. iPod has better UI;
2. iPod has better sound quality;
3. iPod has longer battery life;
4. If I want to run Linux or develop my own infinitely configurable embedded system I have access to a dozen laptops, desktops, PDAs, phones, calculators, etc - and I do. But I use my iPod to listen to music and talk ("podcasts") and occasionally watch videos;
5. In particular, I don't use it to "play games";
6. I don't have any reason to care what detailed format the video is stored in on the iPod, since it's on there to watch, not to edit. I can resize for space before transfer if necessary;
7. Database+metadata+synchronisation are more powerful concepts than straight hierarchical filesystems, i.e. iTunes is actually quite lovely once you get used to it;
8. Finally, good luck with carrying around 80GB (per GP post) of MicroSD cards.
An average user treats an electronic device as a tool which must do one or more particular things well. An average geek treats a tool as something which can be made to do as many things as imaginable. An elitist geek treats a tool as something which must do as many things as imaginable. You appear to fit in this third category.
You're welcome to argue that you aren't interested in an iPod's particular benefits, but most people are.
Parent
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually, I'm not so sure about that. If anyone other than Apple had come up with such a sleek design and neat interface, it would quite probably have done just as well. I have no quarrel with the SanDisk device mentioned by the GP, but micro-SD cards tend to hold a maximum of only 8GB (last time I looked) and the interface is IMHO only OK if you've never had better.The iPod is just a really well-thought-out product in its own right. It does (pretty much) only one thing and does it well.
Which is why, although I love my iPods, I am not considering buying an iPhone. The latter just doesn't have the storage capacity I (now) find I need, I don't need all those bells and whistles and shiny things, and I do not want any gadget that has to be charged every day, especially if the battery is non-removable.
Parent
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Funny)
I do not want any gadget that has to be charged every day, especially if the battery is non-removable
Does that mean you're going to be selling your brain? I'm dabbling in a bit of aftermarket brain replacement, and am prepared to offer anything up to $50.
Parent
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Interesting)
Ok, I have mixed feelings of the merits of the iPod. As a caveat, I have to mention I do own an iPod touch 16GB. I also own a Nokia n95, a SonyEricsson k800i, an iPaq, and Motorola bluetooth headphones. I have also used an iPod Shuffle, an iPod Nano, and a creative Labs Muvo.
I would be first to admit, the ipods are not all that hot in terms of features and sound quality. I have read a review earlier this year, where various music players (including phones) were tested for pure sound quality including dynamic range, etc (testing the analogue side of the hardware too). The Ipods generally came on the middle to the bottom of the range, witht he iPhone and iPod touch coming at the bottom of the ipods, and the ipod Shuffle performing best, and above average compared to other devices from other manufacturers.
The best Player Only devices were from Sony, followed very closely by Samsung and Creative. Even the Phones came very highly rated, with the SonyEriccson K800i coming on top, and only "beaten" by some really good player only devices by Sony. My Nokia N95 is also "better" than the iPods. Add to the fact that many other devices also have FM radio.
The N95 allows direct download of podcasts (something the iPhone does not allow, AND apple have banned an app that tried to allow that).
Even the so called "simplicity" of iTunes has been called to task. I now know of many other music managers that do a pretty good job of managing sound libraries. In fact, many (including Windows Media Player) can even sync with ANY standard USB Mass Storage Device. Considering that itunes cannot "monitor" a set of folders to see changes, and update a library on its own (you need to download ITLu to do that), it is poorer in many aspects.
The iPod touch does not support the Bluetooth headphones I have. The iPaq, the K800, and the N95 did. in fact, before I got the ipod touch, I used to connect my Ipaq and my k800 to the headphones simultaneously. the iPaq would feed music wirelessly, and when a phone call came through, the headset would automatically switch to the phone, and send a pause command to the iPaq, resuming automatically when the call was ended. All this happened seamlessly, and wirelessly, despite being made by different manufacturers... it "just worked".
But..... despite all this, I still use the iPod Touch.. why?
a) the iPod's screen is VERY nice, yet portable. I watch a lot of podcasts, and sometimes movies on the train to work. the N95 is not as good as the iPod.
b) ability to sync "Played" statuses between iPods and iTunes, which allows me to manage the podcasts effectively (deleting played ones in itunes). I understand this is not a very strong reason, because if I used the N95, to download (via wireless/3g) I dont even need to involve a computer in the first place.
c) On a day to day basis, I don't like my phone running out of battery. the N95 does not charge from USB, and Although it may be a better music player, I would rather have the battery for other reasons, such as making calls.
d) Maybe because I paid so much for a iPod Touch, I feel more compelled to use it. (maybe despite my better judgment, I am subconsciously attracted to "pretty things", as well as the Jobs Reality Distortion field.)
e) I am just a lazy procrastinator.
But as You can see, a lot of these reasons are flimsy at best, and I will be doing a test where I will replace my ipod with my n95 for one day, and see how that goes on the morning commute.
I am also scoping Android.....
So maybe Woz has a point.
Parent
Re:He's a genius (Score:5, Informative)
Parent
Re:iTunes = malware (Score:5, Informative)
iTunes works well on Macs, where people want, and expect, things to 'just work'.
On windows platforms, where many users have been forced to learn more than they'd like to about the technical aspects, I agree that iTunes is a pain. It renames your mp3 files, reformats iPods if you try to connect to another PC, limits your ability to share file whatever.
Typical closed architecture, (reminds me of the old IBM days). Products work reasonably well within one manufacturer's range, don't play well with others.
Since all my kids have PCs and iPods, we use Mediamonkey.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediamonkey [wikipedia.org]
Works as advertised. Free version enough for most people.
Recommended. (c)Pournelle.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
But clearly android phones are going to be a refreshing new option for the horrible windows mobile platform or the jail'ed Iphone.
That's assuming the android phones become more trendy that the iPhone, which is no small task.
Does anyone know of any advertising push google is attempting for the android?
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
What's an "android"? Does that answer your question? ;-) I think the Ipod will be like the Walkman Cassette Player... it will be hugely popular with teens and young adults, then slowly lose market share as other "clones" compete with it, and finally die-out as a new technology comes along to replace it.
I'm not sure what could technology could replace the convenience of a portable dedicated computer that plays MP3 and MPEGs, but maybe in the year 2020 such devices will be obsolete. Perhaps the data will be directly downloadable to your brain. (shrug)
Anyway, I don't see MP3 or MPEG players dying anytime soon. The Ipod is safe.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
The ipod will be obsoleted by the humble cell phone. Like it or not people want convergence. Particularly in Asia. Phone, Camera, multimedia, they (we) want it all in one smallish chunk of electronics - it also needs to be shiny and have flashing lights. And yup, the cameras these days are 'good enough' for social networking.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Funny)
It does, I never have a problem sending a text. Oh do you mean posting on my Facebook wall?
Oh, oh, I know what you mean, you're talking about calling someone and talking to them. I'm pretty sure that works most the time, but to be honest I haven't used that feature in a while.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
Okay well, I got a FREE insignia player that holds 1 gigabyte... perfect for listening to an entire Teaching Company course. And it was free.
But these little anecdotes don't change the statistics - Ipod still dominates in sales. Many people say "Ipod" in the same way they say "Kleenex" or "Xeroxing" or "Hoovering". The brand name has become the thing itself. Ipod will be safe and profitable at least until 2015 (imho).
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
Two days ago I would have said that you were wrong. Yesterday I had a discussion with my 9 year old daughter. She wanted an iPod. I told her she already had an mp3-player. She looked at me like the conversation had been:
Daughter: "I want a bike!"
Wise father: "But you already have a desk"
Look on daughter's face suggesting her father had completely lost it.
I tried to ask her what the difference was between an mp3-player and an iPod. Of course she couldn't tell me. That didn't make her change her mind in the least. She ended the discussion by adding "iPod" to our grocery list and leaving the kitchen.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Funny)
She ended the discussion by adding "iPod" to our grocery list and leaving the kitchen.
We have never needed a "+1, Gosh Darn That's Cute!" option so sorely.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
It's people like your daughter that convinced me to buy some Apple stock when it took a dive with the rest of the market this week. Kids young and old aren't going to care that your 401k lost 25% this year and that your new house is now worth less than what you owe on it... they just want their damn iPod's and MacBooks for Christmas!
If they whine loudly enough, I think that most of them will get what they want.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Informative)
Your daughter sees the difference, and it's a difference many of us don't "get".
iPod isn't a technology play. That ended around the time the first iPod Mini came out.
iPod is a FASHION show play.
Your daughter wants to SHOW OFF her iPod, not listen to music.
Just wait, soon she'll be asking to buy all sorts of pairs of shoes. :-)
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
And you will notice that while they may be using those terms, the actual product they are using is not a Kleenex brand tissue, a Xerox brand copy machine, or a Hoover brand vacuum. Just because people call the next generations of non-Apple branded MP3 players an "iPod" doesn't mean Apple will always be king, or outselling everyone else indefinitely.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Informative)
what the hell is hoovering?
We don't use this much in the United States, but in the UK it means using a vacuum cleaner. Hoover is a brand name that (in the UK) became as synonymous with vacuum cleaners as Band-Aid did with bandages here.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Funny)
>>what the hell is hoovering?
This is honest to god truth...
I was in the US in a shared house with a bunch of travelers and this American guy was vacuuming the floor with an old vacuum cleaner that was not too effective.
Him: "Damn, this vacuum cleaner sucks!!"
Me: (Laughing) "You mean it doesn't suck"
Him: "No, it sucks. It's not picking any dirt up. It sucks man, it sucks!"
It took him a while to figure out why I was laughing so much.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Funny)
what the hell is hoovering?
I thought it was launching a massive tariff in the midst of a terrible economic crisis?
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
Granted, it isn't pushed as hard as the iPhone was, but then I didn't really see much Apple-branded advertising here in the Netherlands either. Usually the networks advertises the phones, so right now it shows that T-Mobile has more faith in the iPhone on the short term. But things can change.
The thing Android has against it is that it now runs on old-school, bulky, ugly smartphones with no real new features. That shows us that T-Mobile is targeting the youth with the iPhone and the business world with Android. But that too might change.
And don't forget the power of geeks. They usually have some money to spare for gadgets, and they won't stop talking about how great some new tech product is. Some of my friends and colleagues are waiting to see how good OpenMoko turns out, for example. And when "normal" folk hear the word Google in connection with something gadgety and flashy, they will be interested.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Interesting)
And it will continue to not count that much...right up until a killer app is released for the Android platform which can't be ported to the iPhone because of the restrictions.
People are complaining about not being able to fiddle around with the iPod and iPhone, but that's not what's going to be the main difference. Phones and mobile devices have just started to come into the area where third-party applications can really start taking off, and as always happens with this sort of situation they'll soon be more important than first-party developed applications. Google's framework is entirely geared towards that supporting that sort of innovation, whereas Apples products are decidedly not.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
If it's a killer app that threatens the iPhone - Apple will make sure it comes to the iPhone.
They're not idiots - and have been known in the past to purchase applications or provide alternatives if they believe it is needed on their platforms.
Mike
Parent
Killer App (Score:5, Insightful)
You're right, and loathe though I am to admit it, Apple are capable of taking someone else's cool idea and frobbing the usability right up to eleven.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Insightful)
The measure of how "good" a technology is cannot be expressed in a vector. Just because something has a lot of bells and whistles doesn't make it "good", and just because something lacks said bells and whistles doesn't necessarily make it bad. Guess what, a lot of people liked the iPod BECAUSE they thought it was good technology. Maybe it didn't meet your needs, but just because it didn't doesn't mean that the thing is merely "hype". Get over yourself.
Parent
Re:First post (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually it usually is the "best" technology that wins -- for a certain value of "best". What technology advocates often miss is the role of things like economics and consumer behavior in "best".
MSDOS won in the 1980s, because the most people started out the decade working with typewriters and ended up working with computers. Computers were typically ordered by the truckload and in that environment the fact that MS-DOS systems were cheap was the difference between equipping 100% of the people in the department this year and 80%.
In the VHS-Betamax war, Betamax lost its early lead because Sony would not compromise picture to get longer recording time. For technology advocates, picture quality was paramount. Unfortunately, consumers just didn't care about the better picture as much as having tapes that could record enough program material.
The Android/iPod comparison is interesting... Very interesting.
The truth is, the hardware does not define the device so much any longer. The difference between an iPod touch and a PDA is completely a matter of software. But because of software (and ultimately because of marketing) a PDA is a platform, an iPod is an appliance.
Technical people look at a platform as hands down winner over any comparable appliance. That's why they do things like jail break their iPhones, or install Rockbox on their iPods. A platform can do anything an appliance can, plus anything else you might dream up. But consumers don't dream up new things to do with their tech; they buy into dreams others have had for them. If there is no killer app, they have no inclination to go hunting for one. iPod/iTunes is the killer app for Apple, packaging it as an appliance is a surer path to competitive success, provided that killer apps don't emerge on competing devices.. Apple is selling an appliance that is (a) expensive considering the technology that goes into it and (b) cheap considering the utility people get out of it.
By creating an app store, they're muddying the waters somewhat, but the app store is a marginal activity for them. It may be bet hedging; by creating a developer community, a killer app on a competing device can be ported or reproduced on the iPod. Or it may be the thin edge of a very long wedge that will shoehorn Apple back into the platform market. Or a bit of both.
As it stands, Apple is in the drivers seat. If Android takes off, they can loosen the reins a bit and stay in the game. If Android struggles, they can keep it that way, while still enjoying the fruits of their closed iTunes/iPod appliance utopia.
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Re:First post (Score:5, Funny)
Perhaps the other telcos are just too paranoid about a phone that users will be able to easily screw about with
Paranoid about Android? (ducks)
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