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Disk Drives Face Challenge From Chips

Posted by Hemos on Mon Dec 11, 2006 11:36 AM
from the the-growth-of-hard-storage dept.
WSJdpatton writes "Researchers are reporting significant progress in perfecting a different way to store data in semiconductors, which could replace one widely used type of memory chip and possibly become a credible competitor to disk drives. The researchers, in a paper being delivered at a technical conference in San Francisco, say they used a novel combination of materials to create prototype phase-change components that are more than 500 times as fast as flash chips, while requiring less than half of the electrical power to record data."
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  • Yeah, but (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Keyslapper (852034) on Monday December 11 2006, @11:39AM (#17195816) Homepage
    What is the storage density, and will it still be feasible when this finally comes to market in 10 years?
    • Re:Yeah, but (Score:5, Insightful)

      by TubeSteak (669689) on Monday December 11 2006, @12:26PM (#17196528) Journal
      Does the storage density really matter? At least initially?

      Even if the first unit they put out is 2x [standard size of whatever] but 500x as fast & uses less battery power... don't you think there's going to be a market for it?

      • Re:Yeah, but (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Keyslapper (852034) on Monday December 11 2006, @12:48PM (#17196866) Homepage
        Possibly. If I had to give up a 360G platter drive to put in a 120G phase drive, I'd probably do it - so long as the cost favored the phase drive.

        I'd probably still keep the platter drive for secondary storage and put the OS and critical apps/servers/whatever on the phase drive though.

        I wouldn't pay twice as much for a drive with half the head room though - even if it is 500X faster. That kind of speed (and especially power consumption) may be a big deal for notebooks, but if density is really a problem, the notebooks would probably have to give up a lot more headroom - relatively speaking. We're finally seeing 200G notebook drives, but keep in mind they're tiny compared to your standard laptop drive. If the new phase drives can store the same or more data in the same space, then yeah, I definitely see the end of the platter drive in mainstream use - once the supply outweighs the demand enough to make it financially realistic. If they can put no more than 30G in a notebook drive, then I think it'll take a couple product generations for that to happen.
    • Formats (Score:5, Insightful)

      by symbolset (646467) on Monday December 11 2006, @01:16PM (#17197298) Journal
      Ina remarkable case of technology amnesia, the same idiots that standardized on FAT for flash media for devices are now touting the amazing formatting capacity of FAT32 - An astonishing 32GB! As if in four years that's going to be a lot for flash media you don't have to handle with tweezers.

      So run out, children, and buy your SD 2.0 standard devices while they're not yet obsolete. That way you can buy your camera again and again for no good reason.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        I have a 200GB disk formatted as FAT32...

        It is only Microsoft's own cut-rate implementation of a disk manager that insists on making FAT32 volumes a maximum of 32GB in size, and I suspect it is solely because they want people to use NTFS instead.
      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        You may only be able to format FAT32 up to 32GB using the default Windows utilities, but the maximum volume size for FAT32 is 8TiB. [wikipedia.org] However, you are still limited to a maximum 4GB file size and 268,435,437 files. I'm sure you would run into efficiency problems with a gigantic FAT32 drive, but that doesn't mean that 32GB is the limit.
  • Good news (Score:5, Insightful)

    by fatduck (961824) * on Monday December 11 2006, @11:41AM (#17195852)
    FTA:

    The chip industry is racing to find a replacement for flash memory, because the technology is expected to leak electrical current unacceptably when manufacturers shrink chip circuitry beyond certain dimensions.
    This is the important part. Good to see someone addressing the oft-ignored failures of flash.
    • Re:Good news (Score:5, Interesting)

      by tttonyyy (726776) on Monday December 11 2006, @11:49AM (#17195966) Homepage Journal
      Arguably, this is the important part, and one reason why Flash would never have been a good replacement for a HD even if the speed issues were resolved:

      Flash memory is popular because it retains data without a constant electric charge. Such chips aren't usually used in place of disk drives, because of their higher cost and because there are limits on how many times data can be written. Phase-change memory doesn't have that problem
      (emphasis mine)
      • Re:Good news (Score:5, Interesting)

        by el_womble (779715) on Monday December 11 2006, @12:18PM (#17196390) Homepage
        Do you really believe that harddisks don't fail?

        The difference is that flash fails with writes (not reads) and HDD fails with reads AND writes (bad sectors?). Early flash failed after only 10,000 writes per sector, newer flash is in the millions. Flash spreads the writes around, so to reduce the chance of any one sector failing and can do this because flash is genuinely RAM (unlike HDD where location affects transfer speed). Both HDD and SSD employ firmware stratergies that hide sector failure from the OS, only flash can do that without any real cost to performance.

        The end result is that if either are working after 3 or 4 years your doing well, and should really be looking for a replacement unit.

        • Do you really believe that harddisks don't fail?


          No, but HDDs are amongst the most reliable storage media. A good, well-built SCSI drive can last for much, much longer than 3-4 years. I've personally seen hard drives as old 10 years functioning without a hitch. RAID can very much mitigate the risks associated with keeping drives around that long, too.

        • Re:Good news (Score:5, Insightful)

          by BeBoxer (14448) on Monday December 11 2006, @12:42PM (#17196766)
          The end result is that if either are working after 3 or 4 years your doing well, and should really be looking for a replacement unit.

          Wow! I never suspected. You should probably let Seagate know. I'm sure they will want to rethink their 5 year warranty.

          Perhaps you buy really cut rate drives, but in my experience hard drives almost always outlast their usefulness. I've disposed of more drives due to a combination of obsolete busses and pathetic capacity than outright failures. If you are really seeing high failure rates after only three years, you should be looking for some external factor because that isn't normal.
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            I'm supporting about 100 users, and we hardly ever see any drives fail. Over the last year I've had 2 dead drives (both on the users personal machines), and today we had a user with a failing drive (laptop - not dead yet, but it's going to fail within one or two months). So yeah, the guy is obviously buying junk (or very unlucky).
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          Store your swap file on a flash drive and you can ruin it in a couple of months.

          Flash is good for some things like portable media, but where constant activity is found you should use something more durable.
      • Of course, as always with storage technology, the chief concern will always be cost. Why is RAID so popular? Bang for the buck! You get performance-enhanced, fault-tolerant storage at a reasonable price per megabyte.

        Other technologies have come and gone claiming to compete with hard drives for speed and reliability. But the fact is that hard drives are a very mature technology with a low cost per megabyte, with performance and reliability characteristics that have long been considered good enough. The
      • Re:Good news (Score:4, Insightful)

        by darkmeridian (119044) <(william.chuang) (at) (gmail.com)> on Monday December 11 2006, @12:29PM (#17196582) Homepage
        I always thought that using a hybrid system with a flash memory and a hard drive would be great. Every time the boot configuration changes, write a new "hibernation file" to the flash memory, and then boot from that. Furthermore, the code calls for each application as it starts up could be written to the flash memory. Indeed, the most-accessed binaries can be copied onto the flash memory, as space permits. Such a system would decrease boot times and quicken application start times while reducing the risk of burning out the flash memory over the average life of the computer/drive.
    • "oft-ignored" - I do not think that means what you thnk it means. Every time someone mentions using flash in place of a hard drive, nearly 80% (totally made up number) of the comments are about the rewrite limits of flash memory. I mean there are at least 10 comments below yours that mention it already.
  • by CronicBurn (316845) on Monday December 11 2006, @11:46AM (#17195920)
    Interesting read, however I don't see these things holding a useful amount of data by 2010. Even if they can get 4G capacity on these chips it still wont replace hard drives that hold terabytes of data.

    Although it could make really cool applications for OS installs. Could you imagine your favorite OS installed on something as fast or faster then today's RAM? I don't want to think about the cost of 4G of this stuff though. *shiver*
    • How many 4 GB CF chips (not cards, chips) can you fit into the same space as a 3.5" HD? 100 maybe? That's 400 GB right there. And that's assuming these thing's have a denisty as small as CF, which, according to the article, they do not.

    • by denis-The-menace (471988) on Monday December 11 2006, @11:59AM (#17196114)
      I can see as this memory becomes faster, cheaper and more reliable to replace system memory, too. I can even see the stuff become so cheap that backing all the info will become cost prohibitive, something like how tape backup systems cost way more today than a 2nd hard drive, but an order of magnatude higher.

      The irony is that this would explain why in the future (à-la-Star-Trek), backups of the computer's memory doesn't exist and cause improbable storylines for us system admins.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      I don't want to think about the cost of 4G of this stuff though. *shiver*

      [shrug] A decade ago, I'd never even seen a machine with 4GB RAM, and five years ago, I'd only ever seen that much RAM in monstrously expensive servers. Now I have a machine with that much RAM on my desk. (And yes, I use it; most of my work is pretty heavy number-crunching.) So if this stuff turns out to be viable, it'll get there.

      Actually, a better comparison just occurred to me: about fifteen years ago, I paid an extra thousand
      • For the most part, disk capacities have been increasing faster than the Moore's Law double-in-18-months for the last few years. I stopped caring about disk capacity somewhere around the time 6GB drives got replaced by 20GB drives which got replaced by 120GB drives over about 2-3 years, each at under $100/drive. (Then I got BitTorrent and started downloading lossless-compression music, so I temporarily had to pay attention again :-)

        My first Vax, 22 years ago, had 1GB of disk, in the form of four washing-ma

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          And I have an astrophysics friend who just told me that the university we attend (grad students) will be putting up a new satellite that can generate 30TBs of data in one night (Full Sky Scan!). Wow.
          • I'd guess that the data would be highly compressable, though: Dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, star, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, star, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, dark, star, dark, dark, dark...
    • There are some applications that would kill to have a 4 gig solid-state disk widely available that didn't have the limited-writes of flash. I'm thinking of supercomputing specifically. Network booting isn't good when you're talking thousands of nodes, but neither is magnetic spinning disk. Flash would be okay if you really could tightly control your operating system's behavior (Linux could probably handle it, Solaris is a maybe, and OS X is right out).
    • Although I believe there will be a continued need to hold terabytes of data (mostly for multimedia file storage), I think that a small (say 50GB) high speed storage device is desperately needed in most computers. Think of it this way, if you can get data onto and off of your "hard-drive" dramatically faster then booting your system will become dramatically faster and every application that has disc speed as a bottleneck (any game or database application) will run much faster.
    • by Ngarrang (1023425) on Monday December 11 2006, @12:07PM (#17196224) Journal
      I don't think the hard drive will disappear completely, but as the costs come down, the companies cannot make money producing the smaller capacity drives. We will see 1Tb hard drives readily available someday, sure thing. But different people have different needs. Hard drives are beginning to augment backup strategies because they have become so cheap and high in capacity.

      A solid state drive has a higher G-shock tolerance, is quieter and requires less power than a hard drive. These features are why the technology is attractive to the people who need it. And not everyone needs a hard drive that is 400gb in size. Network appliances may only need a small 1gb boot drive, and these kind of devices will need this new phase-change memory, or whatever will work for the task beyond flash.

      It would be cool to have something like this that is your main memory AND your storage space in one. We could call it Run-In-Place. We could then have a instant-on computers. Just imagine Windows XP or Linux booting up in under 3 seconds!
  • by in2mind (988476) on Monday December 11 2006, @11:47AM (#17195940) Homepage
    From the company developing it - Ovonyx:

    http://www.ovonyx.com/tech_html.html [ovonyx.com]

    http://www.ovonyx.com/ovonyxtech.html [ovonyx.com]
  • Ita about time (Score:5, Insightful)

    by El Lobo (994537) on Monday December 11 2006, @11:49AM (#17195968)
    Today the bottleneck of the whole system lies in the hard drive. This is the only mechanical part (fans excluded) of a computer. It's about time to find a solution for large storage that doesn't depends on an arm swinging and moving back and forward through a fragmented file system....
  • when we all have 16 GIGS of ram and all running our OS straight from ramdrives, we will look back and laugh.
  • It might be cheap:

    >OUM requires fewer steps in an IC manufacturing process resulting in reduced cycle times, fewer defects, and greater manufacturing flexibility.

    >a process that deviates little from a basic CMOS logic flow.

    I get nervous about people who make claims like
    >the OUM memory state can be written more than 10 trillion times
    unless they've tested it to a trillion cycles, which is just possible.

    Anyone else nervous that they didn't say anything like "write time N nanoseconds"?
    • Anyone else nervous that they didn't say anything like "write time N nanoseconds"?
      FTA: "more than 500 times as fast as flash chips"

      I can't seem to find hard numbers on the chips, but USB Flash being able to obtain upwards of 13MB/s now puts it faster than U320 SCSI
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        Marketing departments usually find the _slowest_ competitor to base their stats on. I wouldn't be suprised if the speed was relative to early-generation flash in the hundreds of kB/s range. Not that 100MB/s would be considered slow, but it might not be the GB/s you would expect looking at today's fast flash drives.
    • by kansas1051 (720008) on Monday December 11 2006, @12:14PM (#17196336)
      Wikipedia(as always) has a good article on the technology. It looks like the write time is currently about 5ns: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-change_memory [wikipedia.org] What is really interesting is that the technology is generally temperature based.
    • I get nervous about people who make claims like
      >the OUM memory state can be written more than 10 trillion times
      unless they've tested it to a trillion cycles, which is just possible.


      Considering the size and quantity of their prototype I'd say your skepticism is warranted. It's probably more likely derived from theory and marketing rather than a real world test.

      Or...

      I'll believe it when the MFR's warranty bears that claim.
  • by jellomizer (103300) on Monday December 11 2006, @11:59AM (#17196108)
    Hard Disk Drives now are about $0.50 a Gigabyte. Flash is now about $25.00 a Gigabyte. 3 1/2" Floppy disks about $250.00 per Gigabyte. So it is natural for the Flash Memory cards to replace the floppies as they did. Better speed and better cost/Gigabyte. But right now Hard Drive technology is really cheap. If this new design can match prices/gigabyte of a hard drive then the Disk Drives will need a real challenge. Otherwise This new technology may only be a threat to Flash, or used with drives in hybrid mode for faster disk access. But not until then.

    Price is a major driving force in memory.

    CPU Registers are the fastest but most expensive (very small amount is used)
    Cache is the next fastest and the second most expensive. (4 Megs or so)

    Then comes normal RAM Memory Still slower then Cache and cheaper normally systems now have about a Gig or 2 of that.

    If price wasn't a case Computers wouldn't have much RAM but all Cache, or huge amount of registers. But in real life price is the final decision.

     
    • Other costs need to be taken into account. For example, many people leave their computers on when not in use, because they don't want to waste time letting them start up when they return. (I leave my work computer on except over three-day weekends or longer, though I turn the CRT monitors off each night.) Their time is money, and they don't want to pay the price.

      But, leaving the computers on also costs money in terms of electricity. This is also a big price to pay. If the computers would boot significa
      • That's still a tough sell, though. Most places I've worked had a strict policy of leaving PCs on, if only so that patches can be pushed down outside office hours. The cost of power is trivial compared to the cost in labor of having someone either manually patch each machine, run around after hours powering each machine on, or causing down time during the day (along with the problem of people who are on vacation or out sick).
    • If price wasn't a case Computers wouldn't have much RAM but all Cache, or huge amount of registers. But in real life price is the final decision
      Actually in systems where price is no object, performance is usually paramount. If you have astounding amounts of registers or cache, your performance per instruction or memory operation may be slower. Given the fact that we can manufacture dual-core dies with ease, I imagine we could easily fit a bazillion more registers or double the L1 cache of a single core, but there is a performance trade-off there.
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      Hard Disk Drives now are about $0.50 a Gigabyte.

      You're a bit on the high side there... SATA/PATA drives are down around $0.28-$0.32 per gigabyte and have been for a while. The sweet spot seems to be the 250GB drives for $70, with the 200GB, 300GB, 400GB sizes at around $0.32/GB.

      (Which hasn't changed a whole lot in the past few months. But Seagate's 7200.10 series is one of the cheaper $/GB drives on the market even though it's brand new tech.)
    • Hard drives are only $.50 per gigabyte when you talk about low end consumer hard drives where speed and reliability isn't really that big of an issue. However, when you look at server hard drives, that require reliability and speed, you're going to be paying much more per gigabyte. If these drives can offer increases in speed and/or reliability to what we currently have available for servers, then I could see this technology getting adopted for servers, where people are willing to pay a little more if it
  • The quicker we can get away from a spinning rust platter read by magnets, the better. Less moving parts = more reliable (in general.)

  • by CopaceticOpus (965603) on Monday December 11 2006, @12:32PM (#17196622)
    Can't we just skip ahead to the transparent crystals that glow in various colors and store almost limitless data? We all know that's where this is heading.

    Maybe we need to perfect holographic 3D displays first?
  • The results are presented at the IEDM conference, and it seems that there's no published article on this yet. From this page [his.com] I get:

    Ultra-Thin Phase-Change Bridge Memory Device Using GeSb
    Y.C. Chen, C.T. Rettner***, S. Raoux***, G.W. Burr***, S.H. Chen, R.M. Shelby***, M. Salinga***, W.P. Risk***, T.D. Happ*, G.M. McClelland***, M. Breitwisch^, A. Schrott^, J.B. Philipp*, M.H. Lee, R. Cheek^, T. Nirschl**, M. Lamorey^^, C. F. Chen, E. Joseph^, S. Zaidi*, B. Yee^, H. L. Lung, R. Bergmann*, and C. Lam^, Ma
  • Bah (Score:3, Funny)

    by feijai (898706) on Monday December 11 2006, @12:49PM (#17196882)
    Still won't be able to compete with the sheer density of colored symbols on A4 paper [arabnews.com].
  • by Darth Cider (320236) on Monday December 11 2006, @01:36PM (#17197574)
    Page 35 of their downloadable pdf [ovonyx.com] shows that each cell can hold multiple bits. Each cell can be set to one of ten states by multiple pulses of current, so comparisons to binary storage don't work. The manufacturing process is not complex, basic CMOS in about 20 stages, but the part of the cell that stores data is only about 20 nanometers wide. Replacement of hard drives is a very trivial application. IBM and Intel are planning to incorporate this tech inside ICs to reduce latency of fetching data. The big news is more highly integrated systems on chip. It doesn't look pie-in-the-sky, somewhere-way-down-the-road to me.